TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.3b

24H VOL:

$198,896,558

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,191,591,877

500,572

Markets across

13,691

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,797

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

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What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in March?

Volume:
$2,574,635
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March. For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution structures. Kalshi defines 25 binary YES/NO markets based on specific price thresholds (>$92.99 through >$116.99), while Polymarket defines 8 mutually exclusive bracket-based markets ($<60, $60-65, $65-70, $70-75, $75-80, $80-85, $85-90, $90+). A single settlement price cannot simultaneously resolve multiple Kalshi markets to YES and exactly one Polymarket bracket to YES, creating logical contradiction.

Hero Tip:

Do not cross-trade between these platforms assuming they measure the same outcome. On Kalshi, if CL settles at $105, markets 1-14 and 23-25 all resolve YES simultaneously. On Polymarket, only the $90+ bracket resolves YES. The platforms are structurally incompatible — treat them as separate event groups.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Defines 25 independent binary YES/NO markets, each triggered by a single price threshold. All markets with thresholds below the settlement price resolve YES in parallel. For example, if settlement is $105, markets with thresholds of $92.99, $93.99, $94.99, $95.99, $96.99, $97.99, $98.99, $99.99, $100.99, $101.99, $102.99, $103.99, and $104.99 all resolve YES. Quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 31, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Outlier: Defines 8 mutually exclusive bracket-based markets where exactly one resolves YES based on which price range contains the settlement price. Brackets are: <$60, $60-65, $65-70, $70-75, $75-80, $80-85, $85-90, $90+. If settlement is $105, only the $90+ bracket resolves YES; all others resolve NO. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026' with resolution to 'the higher range bracket' if price falls exactly between two brackets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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