TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list as published on March 3, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same underlying fact: Netflix's official ranking for that specific date. The resolution depends entirely on Netflix's published data for global English-language movies by total views.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms reference the identical source (Netflix Top 10 Global Movies chart published March 3, 2026) and identical ranking metric (total views, English-language films only), with no material divergence in resolution logic.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 Global Movies list published on top10.netflix.com on March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by which movie Netflix ranks in the #2 position on its Global Top 10 Movies chart
- Ranking is based on total views globally for English-language movies only
- The chart reflects viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday)
- Exactly one movie occupies the #2 slot; all YES bets on that movie resolve YES, all others resolve NO
- If Netflix does not publish the update by March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' (Kalshi has no explicit fallback)
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Netflix publication delay: If Netflix does not publish the chart by March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; assume resolution is delayed pending publication.
- Tie at #2 position: Netflix's methodology produces a single ranked list; ties are not expected. If Netflix reports a tie, resolve based on Netflix's own tie-breaking or listed order.
- Movie not on list: If a movie listed in the markets does not appear in Netflix's Top 10 on March 3, 2026, that market resolves NO.
- Non-English language films: Resolution is limited to English-language films only, per both platforms' criteria. Non-English films are excluded.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its Top 10 Global Movies chart. If not published by March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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