TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.2b

24H VOL:

$217,900,088

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,256,149,940

499,530

Markets across

13,705

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,785

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA
Dashboards
kalshi
polymarket
Trending

US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

Total volume:
$134,899
Volume 24h:
$1,658
75%
Liquidity:
$15,502
20%
Open interest:
$20,201
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi accepts a presidential announcement of a trade deal with a June 1 deadline, while Polymarket requires a mutually confirmed agreement by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. This creates a timing and confirmation-standard mismatch.

Hero Tip:

Trade on Polymarket if you believe a formal mutual agreement is unlikely by May 31; trade on Kalshi if you expect a presidential announcement by June 1 regardless of mutual confirmation. Watch for unilateral vs. bilateral announcements in late May 2026.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if the President announces a new trade deal before Jun 1, 2026. Criterion: presidential announcement only, no mutual-agreement requirement. Key quote: 'If the President announces a new trade deal before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if an official mutual agreement over tariffs is publicly announced between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Accepts overwhelming credible reporting consensus as alternative to formal joint announcement; rejects informal or unilateral announcements. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Follow the signals, not the noise

Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.

Company

Brand Kit

API & Data Licensing

Methodology

Help Center

Contact

PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.