TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
A men's college basketball game between UMBC Retrievers and New Hampshire Wildcats scheduled for February 14, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. Markets cover moneyline (winner), point spreads at multiple thresholds (-2.5, -3.5, -4.5), and over/under totals at multiple thresholds (142.5, 143.5, 144.5, 145.5).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi moneyline market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (UMBC win or New Hampshire win) are specified to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket moneyline uses standard mutually exclusive binary logic.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi moneyline market. The resolution logic is internally contradictory and cannot be settled. All spread and total markets are consistent across platforms and safe to trade. Use Polymarket moneyline as the authoritative source for determining the game winner.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Moneyline market (items 1-2) specifies that both New Hampshire winning AND UMBC winning both resolve to Yes. This is logically impossible for a binary market. Quote: 'If New Hampshire wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If UMBC wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Moneyline market uses standard binary logic with mutually exclusive outcomes: UMBC Retrievers or New Hampshire Wildcats. Only cancellation without makeup resolves 50-50. Quote: 'If the UMBC Retrievers win, the market will resolve to UMBC Retrievers. If the New Hampshire Wildcats win, the market will resolve to New Hampshire Wildcats.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.