TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Volume:
$18,060
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets assess whether Donald Trump's approval rating moves up or down over a specific week in late March/early April 2026. Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin's approval trend line comparing March 27 to April 3, while Kalshi measures whether VoteHub's time-adjusted average exceeds 40.6% on April 2 (checked April 3). Both are directional approval movements but use different data sources, methodologies, and reference dates.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Silver Bulletin vs VoteHub), different reference dates (March 27/April 3 vs April 2), and different resolution logic (directional change vs absolute threshold). These markets are not interchangeable.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate bets on approval, not hedges against each other. Polymarket resolves on directional movement between two dates; Kalshi resolves on whether a single day's average exceeds a fixed level. A market can resolve Up on one platform and No on the other. Cross-platform arbitrage requires careful modeling of both approval trajectories and source methodology differences.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison of Silver Bulletin approval ratings on March 27, 2026 vs April 3, 2026, resolved to one decimal place. Resolves Up if April 3 > March 27, Down if April 3 < March 27, 50-50 if equal. Fallback to RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin unavailable. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026.'
- Kalshi: Absolute threshold test: VoteHub time-adjusted average approval on April 2, 2026 checked at April 3, 10:00 AM ET. Resolves Yes if above 40.6%, No otherwise. Single-day snapshot, not comparative. Key Quote: 'If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 40.6% for Apr 2, 2026 (as checked at Apr 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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