TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 20, 2026, than on March 13, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 13, 2026, than on March 20, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different approval rating sources, measurement methodologies, and timing windows. Polymarket references Silver Bulletin's green trend line (one decimal precision) comparing March 13 vs. March 20, 2026, while Kalshi uses VoteHub's time-adjusted average checked on March 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET against a 42.0% threshold.Hero Tip:
If you trade on both platforms, understand that Polymarket resolves on a relative comparison (Up/Down/Tie) using Silver Bulletin data, while Kalshi resolves on an absolute threshold (above or below 42.0%) using VoteHub data. The same real-world approval movement may produce different outcomes on each platform. Monitor both data sources independently leading up to March 20, 2026.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on relative change in Silver Bulletin's approval rating between March 13 and March 20, 2026, with outcomes of Up, Down, or 50-50 tie. Uses only one decimal precision from the green trend line: 'This market will resolve to Up if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 20, 2026, than on March 13, 2026.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves based on absolute threshold—Yes if VoteHub time-adjusted average for Trump's approval is above 42.0% as checked on March 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, No otherwise. Uses a fixed 42.0% benchmark: 'If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 42.0% for Mar 19, 2026 (as checked at Mar 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.'
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