TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Volume:
$3,946
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Donald Trump's approval rating moves up or down over a one-week period in mid-March 2026. Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin's approval rating aggregator (with RealClearPolitics as fallback), while Kalshi uses VoteHub's time-adjusted average. Both markets resolve based on comparing approval ratings across two specific dates.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure approval rating using different data sources (Silver Bulletin vs VoteHub) and different resolution logic (directional change vs absolute threshold). This creates settlement value mismatch risk.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets with different payoff structures. Polymarket rewards directional prediction; Kalshi rewards level prediction. Cross-platform arbitrage is unlikely because the underlying mechanics diverge. Focus on which data source (Silver Bulletin or VoteHub) is more reliable for the March 6-13 period, and whether approval is likely to be near 42.3% on March 12.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional change market. Compares Silver Bulletin approval rating (green trend line) on March 6, 2026 vs March 13, 2026. Resolves Up if March 13 > March 6, Down if March 13 < March 6, or 50-50 if equal. Uses one decimal precision. Fallback source is RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 13, 2026, than on March 6, 2026.'
- Kalshi: Absolute threshold market. Resolves Yes if VoteHub time-adjusted average approval rating is above 42.3% for March 12, 2026 (as checked at March 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). This is a level test, not a change test. Key quote: 'If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 42.3% for Mar 12, 2026 (as checked at Mar 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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