TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 24, 2026, than on April 17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 17, 2026, than on April 24, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
The two platforms use different data sources and measurement methodologies for Trump's approval rating, creating potential for different resolution outcomes even if both markets intend to measure directional change.Hero Tip:
If you trade both platforms, note that Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin's green trend line (one decimal precision) while Kalshi uses VoteHub's time-adjusted average (threshold-based at 39.9%). A rating change that triggers YES on one platform may not on the other. Monitor both sources independently and consider the source lag rules on Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on directional comparison of Silver Bulletin approval ratings between April 17 and April 24, 2026. Uses the green trend line to one decimal point precision. Includes fallback rules: if no data on reference date, uses most recent prior day; if no data by 12:00 PM ET on third day after reference date, uses most recent prior day. Falls back to RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 24, 2026, than on April 17, 2026.'
- Kalshi: Resolves YES/NO based on whether VoteHub time-adjusted average for Trump's approval rating is above 39.9% for April 23, 2026 (checked April 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). This is an absolute threshold test, not a directional comparison. Quote: 'If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 39.9% for Apr 23, 2026 (as checked at Apr 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.