TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Volume:
$30,983
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Donald Trump's approval rating moves up or down during the week of April 10-17, 2026. Polymarket measures the change in Silver Bulletin's aggregated approval rating between these two dates, while Kalshi measures whether Trump's approval (via VoteHub) exceeds a specific threshold (40.2%) on April 16, 2026. Both markets assess Trump's approval trajectory but use different data sources and measurement methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
The two platforms use different data sources and measurement methodologies for Trump's approval rating, creating potential for different resolution outcomes even if the underlying event (approval movement) is identical.Hero Tip:
If you trade both platforms, be aware that Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin's green trend line (one decimal precision) while Kalshi uses VoteHub's time-adjusted average (checked at a specific time). A rating could move between platforms due to methodology differences rather than actual approval change. Hedge accordingly or choose the platform whose source you trust more.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on whether Silver Bulletin approval rating (green trend line) is higher on April 17, 2026 versus April 10, 2026, with fallback to RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable. Precision is one decimal point. Includes 50-50 tie resolution if ratings are identical.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if VoteHub time-adjusted average for Trump's approval is above 40.2% on April 16, 2026 (checked at April 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). This is a threshold-based binary, not a directional comparison.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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