TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trump approval rating on March 27?
Volume:
$86,650
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks President Trump's approval rating as measured by RealClearPolitics at a specific moment (11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026). The Kalshi market resolves to Yes across nearly all possible approval rating outcomes, with only a narrow gap (41.5% to 41.9%) appearing to resolve to No, creating an unusual inverse-binary structure.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on both the primary resolution source and the measurement precision. Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin (with RealClearPolitics as fallback) and resolves to one decimal place, while Kalshi uses only RealClearPolitics and resolves to two decimal places with specific time-stamped thresholds at 11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, your outcome depends on Silver Bulletin's green trend line rounded to one decimal place. If you trade on Kalshi, your outcome depends on RealClearPolitics' rating at exactly 11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026, with two-decimal precision. The same underlying approval rating could resolve differently across platforms due to source divergence and rounding methodology. Verify which source you are betting on before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin's approval rating aggregator as the primary source (with RealClearPolitics as fallback only if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable), resolves to one decimal place precision, and does not specify a time-of-day snapshot. The market states 'This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi uses RealClearPolitics as the sole resolution source, specifies a precise time-of-day snapshot (11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026), and resolves based on two-decimal-place thresholds across eight distinct outcome bands. The market states 'If the President's approval rating is below 41.3% at 11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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