TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Trump approval rating on March 27?
polymarket
kalshi

Trump approval rating on March 27?

Volume:
$86,650

40.0–40.4

 - Polymarket

40.0–40.4 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 28, 2026

Closed: Mar 27, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

40.0–40.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,938
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

41.2 or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,809
N/A
N/A
$7,759
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<40.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40.5–40.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,982
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

42.0+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,448
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

41.0–41.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,271
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

41.3 to 41.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,058
N/A
N/A
$3,226
Settled
No
polymarket

41.5–41.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,810
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

41.9 to 42.1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,320
N/A
N/A
$1,638
Settled
No
kalshi

41.6 to 41.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,023
N/A
N/A
$1,184
Settled
No
kalshi

42.2 to 42.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,692
N/A
N/A
$1,201
Settled
No
kalshi

43.1 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$716
N/A
N/A
$664
Settled
No
kalshi

42.8 to 43.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$628
N/A
N/A
$620
Settled
No
kalshi

42.5 to 42.7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$168
N/A
N/A
$109
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group tracks President Trump's approval rating as measured by RealClearPolitics at a specific moment (11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026). The Kalshi market resolves to Yes across nearly all possible approval rating outcomes, with only a narrow gap (41.5% to 41.9%) appearing to resolve to No, creating an unusual inverse-binary structure.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on both the primary resolution source and the measurement precision. Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin (with RealClearPolitics as fallback) and resolves to one decimal place, while Kalshi uses only RealClearPolitics and resolves to two decimal places with specific time-stamped thresholds at 11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026.Hero tip: If you trade on Polymarket, your outcome depends on Silver Bulletin's green trend line rounded to one decimal place. If you trade on Kalshi, your outcome depends on RealClearPolitics' rating at exactly 11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026, with two-decimal precision. The same underlying approval rating could resolve differently across platforms due to source divergence and rounding methodology. Verify which source you are betting on before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin's approval rating aggregator as the primary source (with RealClearPolitics as fallback only if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable), resolves to one decimal place precision, and does not specify a time-of-day snapshot. The market states 'This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi uses RealClearPolitics as the sole resolution source, specifies a precise time-of-day snapshot (11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026), and resolves based on two-decimal-place thresholds across eight distinct outcome bands. The market states 'If the President's approval rating is below 41.3% at 11:00 AM ET on March 27, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.