TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Trump approval rating on March 13?
polymarket
kalshi

Trump approval rating on March 13?

Volume:
$121,766

<41.0

 - Polymarket

<41.0 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 14, 2026

Closed: Mar 12, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<41.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,645
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

42.8 to 43.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,533
N/A
N/A
$3,594
Settled
Yes
polymarket

41.0–41.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

42.0–42.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

41.5–41.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,613
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

43.0+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,944
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

42.4 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,374
N/A
N/A
$6,757
Settled
No
polymarket

42.5–42.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

43.1 to 43.3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,173
N/A
N/A
$1,919
Settled
No
kalshi

43.4 to 43.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,467
N/A
N/A
$1,228
Settled
No
kalshi

42.5 to 42.7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,332
N/A
N/A
$2,277
Settled
No
kalshi

44.3 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,717
N/A
N/A
$2,631
Settled
No
kalshi

43.7 to 43.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,352
N/A
N/A
$952
Settled
No
kalshi

44.0 to 44.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$974
N/A
N/A
$776
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group measures Donald Trump's approval rating on March 13, 2026, across multiple granular ranges. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the same underlying metric (Trump's approval rating on a specific date), but they differ in data source, timing specification, and granularity of resolution buckets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct data sources (Silver Bulletin vs. RealClearPolitics) and timing specification mismatch (no time specified vs. 11:00 AM ET) create potential for different resolution outcomes on the same underlying metric.Hero tip: Verify which source (Silver Bulletin or RealClearPolitics) will be active and finalized by March 13, 2026. If Silver Bulletin is unavailable, Polymarket defaults to RealClearPolitics, aligning with Kalshi. However, Kalshi's 11:00 AM ET snapshot may capture a different reading than Polymarket's end-of-day or finalized trend line. Hedge across both platforms if you expect intraday volatility.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Primary source is Silver Bulletin's green trend line approval rating, reported to one decimal place. Fallback to RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable. No specific time-of-day specified. Methodology changes to Silver Bulletin have no bearing on resolution.
  • Kalshi: Uses RealClearPolitics approval rating at exactly 11:00 AM ET on March 13, 2026. Specifies precise timestamp and single data source with no fallback mechanism stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.