TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trump approval rating on March 13?
Volume:
$121,766
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group measures Donald Trump's approval rating on March 13, 2026, across multiple granular ranges. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the same underlying metric (Trump's approval rating on a specific date), but they differ in data source, timing specification, and granularity of resolution buckets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct data sources (Silver Bulletin vs. RealClearPolitics) and timing specification mismatch (no time specified vs. 11:00 AM ET) create potential for different resolution outcomes on the same underlying metric.Hero Tip:
Verify which source (Silver Bulletin or RealClearPolitics) will be active and finalized by March 13, 2026. If Silver Bulletin is unavailable, Polymarket defaults to RealClearPolitics, aligning with Kalshi. However, Kalshi's 11:00 AM ET snapshot may capture a different reading than Polymarket's end-of-day or finalized trend line. Hedge across both platforms if you expect intraday volatility.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Primary source is Silver Bulletin's green trend line approval rating, reported to one decimal place. Fallback to RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable. No specific time-of-day specified. Methodology changes to Silver Bulletin have no bearing on resolution.
- Kalshi: Uses RealClearPolitics approval rating at exactly 11:00 AM ET on March 13, 2026. Specifies precise timestamp and single data source with no fallback mechanism stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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