TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trump approval rating on February 13?
Volume:
$92,603
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group measures Donald Trump's approval rating on February 13, 2026, across multiple platforms using different polling aggregators and precision levels. Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin (with RealClearPolitics as fallback) at one decimal precision, while Kalshi uses RealClearPolitics at a specific time snapshot (11:00 AM ET) with two decimal precision bands.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct approval rating sources (Silver Bulletin vs RealClearPolitics), different precision levels (one decimal vs two decimal bands), and different timing specifications (finalized end-of-day vs 11:00 AM ET snapshot) create potential for conflicting resolutions on the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve to the same outcome. Monitor both Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics separately in the days leading to February 13, 2026. If the two sources diverge by more than 0.3 percentage points, expect potential disputes. Kalshi's 11:00 AM ET snapshot may not align with Polymarket's finalized end-of-day rating. Consider the precision mismatch: Polymarket reports to one decimal (e.g., 42.8%), but Kalshi's bands are two decimal ranges (e.g., 42.6-42.8%). A Polymarket resolution of 42.8% may not cleanly map to any single Kalshi band.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Uses Silver Bulletin's approval rating green trend line for February 13, 2026, at one decimal precision (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%). Falls back to RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable. Resolution occurs after the next data point is available, finalizing the February 13 rating. No specific time of day specified. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on February 13, 2026... specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.'
- Kalshi: Uses RealClearPolitics approval rating at exactly 11:00 AM ET on February 13, 2026. Markets are structured as eight discrete two decimal precision bands (e.g., 42.0-42.2%, 42.3-42.5%, 42.6-42.8%, 42.9-43.1%, 43.2-43.4%, 43.5-43.7%, above 43.7%, below 42.0%). Each band is a separate Yes/No market. Quote: 'If the President's approval rating is between 42.0 and 42.2% at 11:00 AM ET on February 13, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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