TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Trump approval rating on February 13?
polymarket
kalshi

Trump approval rating on February 13?

Volume:
$92,603

42.0 to 42.2

 - Kalshi

42.0 to 42.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 14, 2026

Closed: Feb 13, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

42.0 to 42.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$2,427
$7,274
N/A
N/A
$4,530
Settled
Yes
kalshi

41.9 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2,105
$6,517
N/A
N/A
$4,372
Settled
No
kalshi

42.3 to 42.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1,410
$4,456
N/A
N/A
$3,495
Settled
No
kalshi

42.6 to 42.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$539
$2,535
N/A
N/A
$1,735
Settled
No
kalshi

42.9 to 43.1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$969
$1,092
N/A
N/A
$948
Settled
No
kalshi

43.8 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2,802
$826
N/A
N/A
$826
Settled
No
kalshi

43.5 to 43.7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1,718
$688
N/A
N/A
$688
Settled
No
kalshi

43.2 to 43.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3,329
$228
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
No
polymarket

40.5–40.9

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,916
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

41.5–41.9

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,294
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

<40.5

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,816
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

41.0–41.4

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,384
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

42.5+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,599
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

42.0–42.4

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,978
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group measures Donald Trump's approval rating on February 13, 2026, across multiple platforms using different polling aggregators and precision levels. Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin (with RealClearPolitics as fallback) at one decimal precision, while Kalshi uses RealClearPolitics at a specific time snapshot (11:00 AM ET) with two decimal precision bands.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct approval rating sources (Silver Bulletin vs RealClearPolitics), different precision levels (one decimal vs two decimal bands), and different timing specifications (finalized end-of-day vs 11:00 AM ET snapshot) create potential for conflicting resolutions on the same underlying event.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve to the same outcome. Monitor both Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics separately in the days leading to February 13, 2026. If the two sources diverge by more than 0.3 percentage points, expect potential disputes. Kalshi's 11:00 AM ET snapshot may not align with Polymarket's finalized end-of-day rating. Consider the precision mismatch: Polymarket reports to one decimal (e.g., 42.8%), but Kalshi's bands are two decimal ranges (e.g., 42.6-42.8%). A Polymarket resolution of 42.8% may not cleanly map to any single Kalshi band.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Uses Silver Bulletin's approval rating green trend line for February 13, 2026, at one decimal precision (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%). Falls back to RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable. Resolution occurs after the next data point is available, finalizing the February 13 rating. No specific time of day specified. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on February 13, 2026... specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.'
  • Kalshi: Uses RealClearPolitics approval rating at exactly 11:00 AM ET on February 13, 2026. Markets are structured as eight discrete two decimal precision bands (e.g., 42.0-42.2%, 42.3-42.5%, 42.6-42.8%, 42.9-43.1%, 43.2-43.4%, 43.5-43.7%, above 43.7%, below 42.0%). Each band is a separate Yes/No market. Quote: 'If the President's approval rating is between 42.0 and 42.2% at 11:00 AM ET on February 13, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.