TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trump approval rating on April 24?
Description
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 24, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different resolution sources and measurement precision. Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin (one decimal place, e.g., 42.8%) with RealClearPolitics as fallback, while Kalshi uses RealClearPolitics directly. Additionally, Polymarket segments the approval range into narrow bands (0.5% width), while Kalshi covers broader ranges with some gaps.Hero Tip:
If betting across both platforms, note that Polymarket's Silver Bulletin source may diverge from Kalshi's RealClearPolitics reading on April 24, 2026. Kalshi's market structure has gaps (e.g., no coverage for 41.9-42.0% or above 42.8%), meaning some approval outcomes may not resolve YES on Kalshi but could on Polymarket. Arbitrage risk exists if the two sources disagree on the final rating.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Silver Bulletin's green trend line approval rating to one decimal place (e.g., 38.5%, 39.2%). Seven markets cover ranges: <38.5%, 38.5-38.9%, 39.0-39.4%, 39.5-39.9%, 40.0-40.4%, 40.5+. Primary source is Silver Bulletin with RealClearPolitics as fallback if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable.
- Kalshi: Resolves based on RealClearPolitics approval rating at 11:00 AM ET on April 24, 2026. Eight markets cover: below 41.1%, 41.1-41.3%, 41.4-41.6%, 41.7-41.9%, 42.0-42.2%, 42.3-42.5%, 42.6-42.8%, above 42.8%. All outcomes resolve YES; no NO resolution path is specified.
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