TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Trump approval rating on April 24?
polymarket
kalshi

Trump approval rating on April 24?

Volume:
$196,077

Below 41.1

 - Kalshi

Below 41.1 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 25, 2026

Closed: Apr 24, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Below 41.1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$39,208
N/A
N/A
$21,662
Settled
Yes
polymarket

39.0–39.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,551
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

41.1 to 41.3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,419
N/A
N/A
$14,851
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 42.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,567
N/A
N/A
$12,430
Settled
No
kalshi

41.4 to 41.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,948
N/A
N/A
$9,820
Settled
No
polymarket

38.5–38.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

42.0 to 42.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,457
N/A
N/A
$5,960
Settled
No
polymarket

39.5–39.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

41.7 to 41.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,929
N/A
N/A
$4,788
Settled
No
kalshi

42.6 to 42.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,879
N/A
N/A
$4,607
Settled
No
polymarket

40.0–40.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,849
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

42.3 to 42.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,331
N/A
N/A
$4,707
Settled
No
polymarket

<38.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40.5+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,997
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 24, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different resolution sources and measurement precision. Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin (one decimal place, e.g., 42.8%) with RealClearPolitics as fallback, while Kalshi uses RealClearPolitics directly. Additionally, Polymarket segments the approval range into narrow bands (0.5% width), while Kalshi covers broader ranges with some gaps.Hero tip: If betting across both platforms, note that Polymarket's Silver Bulletin source may diverge from Kalshi's RealClearPolitics reading on April 24, 2026. Kalshi's market structure has gaps (e.g., no coverage for 41.9-42.0% or above 42.8%), meaning some approval outcomes may not resolve YES on Kalshi but could on Polymarket. Arbitrage risk exists if the two sources disagree on the final rating.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Silver Bulletin's green trend line approval rating to one decimal place (e.g., 38.5%, 39.2%). Seven markets cover ranges: <38.5%, 38.5-38.9%, 39.0-39.4%, 39.5-39.9%, 40.0-40.4%, 40.5+. Primary source is Silver Bulletin with RealClearPolitics as fallback if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on RealClearPolitics approval rating at 11:00 AM ET on April 24, 2026. Eight markets cover: below 41.1%, 41.1-41.3%, 41.4-41.6%, 41.7-41.9%, 42.0-42.2%, 42.3-42.5%, 42.6-42.8%, above 42.8%. All outcomes resolve YES; no NO resolution path is specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.