TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 28?
Volume:
$172,124
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 28?
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All 13 markets apply the same resolution framework: strict greater-than comparison to threshold, Pyth Close as primary source, identical edge-case handling, and proportional adjustment for corporate actions.
Primary resolution logic:
Pyth Data (pythdata.app) - Close value of the 1-minute candle at end of regular trading hours on April 28, 2026, for Equity.US.SPY/USDCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if and only if SPY's closing price on April 28, 2026 is strictly greater than the specified threshold price
- Market resolves NO if closing price is equal to or less than the threshold
- Closing price is defined as Pyth's Close value from the final 1-minute candle of regular trading hours on the primary exchange
- If Pyth Close is unavailable for that candle, use the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours on that day
- If no valid Pyth price exists due to outage or data failure, use the official closing price published by the primary exchange
- In the event of a stock split or reverse split, the threshold price is adjusted proportionally and resolution uses split-adjusted prices from Pyth
- Closing prices are used exactly as published by Pyth without rounding
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- April 28 is not a trading day: Market resolves 50-50 if April 28, 2026 is not a valid trading day under Pyth's trading-hours schedule
- No valid price data available: Market resolves 50-50 if SPY does not trade during the regular session or if no valid Pyth Close or fallback price exists due to system outage or technical disruption
- Price exactly equals threshold: Market resolves NO; the condition requires price strictly above the threshold, not equal to it
- Corporate action (stock split): Threshold price is adjusted proportionally; resolution uses split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth historical data
- Kalshi platform rules: Kalshi rules are not detailed in source data; assume alignment with Polymarket's Pyth-based methodology unless Kalshi publishes divergent terms
Timing:
Resolution occurs after market close on April 28, 2026, once Pyth publishes the final Close value for that trading day or the primary exchange publishes its official closeOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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