TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 24?
Volume:
$177,101
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 24?
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All 13 Polymarket markets apply the same resolution framework: strict greater-than comparison against threshold, Pyth Close as primary source, with documented fallback hierarchy and 50-50 resolution for non-trading days or data failures.
Primary resolution logic:
Pyth Close value (1-minute candle at end of regular trading hours on April 24, 2026); fallback to last valid Pyth price during regular hours; final fallback to primary exchange official closing price.Core resolution logic:
- YES if SPY closing price is strictly greater than the stated threshold (e.g., >$715, >$705, etc.)
- NO if SPY closing price is equal to or less than the stated threshold
- Use Pyth Close value from the final 1-minute candle of regular trading hours on April 24, 2026
- If Pyth Close unavailable for end-of-day candle, use last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours
- If no valid Pyth price exists for April 24 due to outage or technical failure, use official closing price from primary exchange
- Apply proportional price adjustment to threshold if stock split or reverse split occurs during the time frame
- Resolve 50-50 if April 24, 2026 is not a trading day under Pyth schedule or if no valid price data exists
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact Price Match: If SPY closes at exactly the threshold price (e.g., $715.00), market resolves NO. Only strict greater-than triggers YES.
- Stock Split: If a stock split or reverse split occurs between now and April 24, 2026, the threshold price is adjusted proportionally and resolution uses split-adjusted prices as shown on Pyth.
- Non-Trading Day: If April 24, 2026 is not a trading day per Pyth schedule, market resolves 50-50.
- Data Outage: If Pyth has a system outage or data failure and no valid price exists for April 24, market resolves 50-50. If partial data exists, last valid Pyth price during regular hours is used. If none, primary exchange official close is used.
- Rounding: Closing prices are used exactly as published by Pyth without rounding.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after market close on April 24, 2026, once the final 1-minute candle Close value is confirmed from Pyth or the primary exchange.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.