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406,019

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30,401

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S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 23?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 23?

Volume:
$257,943

7,100 or above

 - Kalshi

7,100 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 23, 2026

Closed: Apr 23, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

7,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$79,613
N/A
N/A
$17,552
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,075 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,868
N/A
N/A
$11,351
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,050 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,697
N/A
N/A
$9,263
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,025 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,909
N/A
N/A
$6,391
Settled
Yes
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on April 23?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,472
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $700 on April 23?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,060
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $695 on April 23?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,630
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $690 on April 23?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,552
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,656
N/A
N/A
$1,432
Settled
Yes
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $685 on April 23?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,495
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,975 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,925 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,950 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,775 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,825 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,850 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,875 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,125 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,366
N/A
N/A
$10,554
Settled
No
kalshi

7,150 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,862
N/A
N/A
$6,188
Settled
No
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 23?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,079
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,200 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,446
N/A
N/A
$9,332
Settled
No
kalshi

7,250 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,266
N/A
N/A
$9,266
Settled
No
kalshi

7,175 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,026
N/A
N/A
$6,976
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 71

Description

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 23?

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi resolve on different underlying assets (SPY ETF vs S&P 500 Index) with different data sources, closing mechanics, and price precision. While both measure the same economic event (market level on April 23, 2026), the settlement values will not be identical due to ETF tracking error, index composition, and data source differences.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with correlated but non-identical outcomes. SPY closing at $735 does not guarantee the S&P 500 Index closes above any specific level on Kalshi. Use historical SPY-to-Index ratios to estimate cross-platform convergence, but do not assume arbitrage-free pricing. Polymarket offers superior transparency (Pyth source is named and auditable); Kalshi's data source is opaque. If you trade both, hedge for basis risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on SPY (ETF) closing price via Pyth data. YES if close > strike price (e.g., $735). Uses Pyth 1-minute candle for final minute of regular trading; falls back to last valid Pyth price or official exchange close if Pyth data unavailable. Exact equality resolves NO. No trading day resolves 50-50. Source explicitly named: Pyth (https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD).
  • Kalshi: Resolves on S&P 500 Index end-of-day value. YES if index > strike (e.g., 7724.9999). Uses 0.0001 precision thresholds. No fallback mechanism, data source, or no-trading-day rule specified in provided documentation. Settlement source is unspecified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.