TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24?

Volume:
$129,973

6,550 or above

 - Kalshi

6,550 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 16, 2026

Closed: Mar 24, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,550 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,524
N/A
N/A
$6,821
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,525 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,226
N/A
N/A
$1,077
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,500 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,828
N/A
N/A
$2,660
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,475 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,522
N/A
N/A
$3,120
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,350 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$303
N/A
N/A
$302
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,450 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$173
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,325 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,375 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,900 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,300 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,200 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,050 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,425 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,575 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,892
N/A
N/A
$28,075
Settled
No
kalshi

6,600 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,798
N/A
N/A
$32,219
Settled
No
kalshi

6,625 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,722
N/A
N/A
$1,520
Settled
No
kalshi

6,650 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$963
N/A
N/A
$678
Settled
No
kalshi

6,700 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$677
N/A
N/A
$653
Settled
No
kalshi

6,675 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$596
N/A
N/A
$469
Settled
No
kalshi

6,750 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
$245
Settled
No
kalshi

6,725 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

6,775 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,075 or above

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5,850 or above

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down vs. prior trading day), while Kalshi contains 60 duplicate absolute price-level thresholds (all resolving YES if SPX closes above various levels) with no NO resolution condition specified, making Kalshi's market logically incomplete and unresolvable.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's version of this market. Kalshi's rules list only YES resolution conditions across 60 identical threshold statements with no corresponding NO clause, creating a logical void. Polymarket's market is resolvable: it compares March 24 close to the prior trading day close. If you hold Kalshi contracts, expect settlement delays or platform discretion to fill the gap.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on directional comparison—YES (Up) if March 24, 2026 SPX close is higher than the most recent prior trading day close; NO (Down) if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source is Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi lists 60 identical conditional statements, each resolving YES if end-of-day SPX on March 24, 2026 exceeds a specific absolute price level (ranging from 5749.9999 to 7224.9999). No NO resolution condition, NO tie-breaker, and no prior-day comparison logic is provided. 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 24, 2026 is above 5849.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.' (repeated 60 times with different thresholds, no complementary NO clause).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.