TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?

polymarket

kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?

Volume:

$920,009

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?

- Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 3, 2026

Closed: Mar 2, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$774,546

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,875 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$34,975

N/A

N/A

$12,677

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,850 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$23,395

N/A

N/A

$11,636

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,825 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$9,799

N/A

N/A

$4,174

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$7,428

N/A

N/A

$2,416

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2,830

N/A

N/A

$2,706

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,775 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,836

N/A

N/A

$1,170

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,550 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$756

N/A

N/A

$756

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,575 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$721

N/A

N/A

$721

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,525 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$513

N/A

N/A

$466

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,675 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$391

N/A

N/A

$384

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,750 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$249

N/A

N/A

$244

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$197

N/A

N/A

$105

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$190

N/A

N/A

$190

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$96

N/A

N/A

$96

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,650 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$13

N/A

N/A

$13

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,725 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6

N/A

N/A

$5

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,625 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$4

N/A

N/A

$4

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,900 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$58,449

N/A

N/A

$25,427

Settled

No

kalshi

6,925 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$2,699

N/A

N/A

$2,589

Settled

No

kalshi

7,600 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$510

N/A

N/A

$510

Settled

No

kalshi

6,950 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$183

N/A

N/A

$183

Settled

No

kalshi

7,100 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$106

N/A

N/A

$106

Settled

No

kalshi

7,250 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$96

N/A

N/A

$96

Settled

No

kalshi

7,150 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

No

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on Monday, March 2, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. Polymarket resolves based on directional movement (Up/Down/Tie), while Kalshi uses 60 absolute price level thresholds, creating a fundamental mismatch in resolution methodology.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses relative directional resolution (Up/Down vs prior close), while Kalshi uses 60 independent absolute price level thresholds. These are fundamentally different settlement frameworks that measure different outcomes.Hero tip: Polymarket is a momentum bet; Kalshi is a level bet. A market that goes Up on Polymarket could resolve No on most Kalshi thresholds if the prior close was very high, or Yes on all thresholds if the prior close was very low. Do not assume correlation. Verify the prior trading day close (likely Friday, February 28, 2026) before reconciling positions.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Resolves based on directional comparison to prior trading day close. Up if March 2 close > prior close, Down if March 2 close < prior close, 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Handles edge cases (no trade, shortened sessions, trading halts) with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.
Kalshi: Resolves Yes if March 2 end-of-day SPX value exceeds any of 60 absolute thresholds (ranging 6149.9999 to 7624.9999). Each threshold is an independent binary condition. No explicit handling of edge cases, no reference to prior close, no tie-breaking logic.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.