TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?
Volume:
$920,009
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on Monday, March 2, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. Polymarket resolves based on directional movement (Up/Down/Tie), while Kalshi uses 60 absolute price level thresholds, creating a fundamental mismatch in resolution methodology.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative directional resolution (Up/Down vs prior close), while Kalshi uses 60 independent absolute price level thresholds. These are fundamentally different settlement frameworks that measure different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Polymarket is a momentum bet; Kalshi is a level bet. A market that goes Up on Polymarket could resolve No on most Kalshi thresholds if the prior close was very high, or Yes on all thresholds if the prior close was very low. Do not assume correlation. Verify the prior trading day close (likely Friday, February 28, 2026) before reconciling positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on directional comparison to prior trading day close. Up if March 2 close > prior close, Down if March 2 close < prior close, 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Handles edge cases (no trade, shortened sessions, trading halts) with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.
- Kalshi: Resolves Yes if March 2 end-of-day SPX value exceeds any of 60 absolute thresholds (ranging 6149.9999 to 7624.9999). Each threshold is an independent binary condition. No explicit handling of edge cases, no reference to prior close, no tie-breaking logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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