TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17?

polymarket

kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17?

Volume:

$300,840

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17?

- Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 17, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$192,211

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$18,155

N/A

N/A

$11,419

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,675 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6,178

N/A

N/A

$5,299

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,650 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,396

N/A

N/A

$1,330

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,625 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$430

N/A

N/A

$383

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$230

N/A

N/A

$230

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$186

N/A

N/A

$186

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,475 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$66

N/A

N/A

$66

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,575 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$14

N/A

N/A

$14

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,250 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,350 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,425 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,525 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,275 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,325 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

5,950 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2

N/A

N/A

$2

Settled

Yes

kalshi

5,875 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2

N/A

N/A

$2

Settled

Yes

kalshi

5,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2

N/A

N/A

$2

Settled

Yes

kalshi

5,925 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2

N/A

N/A

$2

Settled

Yes

kalshi

5,975 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2

N/A

N/A

$2

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,725 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$66,565

N/A

N/A

$34,613

Settled

No

kalshi

6,750 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$9,700

N/A

N/A

$2,021

Settled

No

kalshi

6,800 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$2,593

N/A

N/A

$2,559

Settled

No

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 index closes higher or lower on March 17, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 individual binary contracts tied to specific price thresholds. Both markets resolve based on official closing prices from the S&P 500 Index.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses relative price movement (day-over-day comparison) while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. These are structurally incompatible settlement frameworks, not merely different data sources or timing.Hero tip: Polymarket UP/DOWN is a directional bet; Kalshi thresholds are level-based bets. A day that closes higher than the prior day (Polymarket UP) could still resolve NO on many Kalshi contracts if the absolute price is below their respective thresholds. Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Relative directional market. Resolves UP if March 17 close exceeds prior trading day close; DOWN if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Settlement is binary directional comparison, not absolute price level.
Kalshi: 60 separate absolute threshold contracts. Each resolves YES only if end-of-day SPX exceeds a specific price barrier (5874.9999 to 7349.9999). No comparison to prior day; purely absolute level-based settlement.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.