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399,592

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30,097

events

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2,622

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5

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VS.

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61%

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 12?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 12?

Volume:
$37,193

6,500 or above

 - Kalshi

6,500 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 12, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,284
N/A
N/A
$2,284
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,575 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,648
N/A
N/A
$1,237
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,418
N/A
N/A
$1,286
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,625 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
$226
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$194
N/A
N/A
$194
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
$139
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,550 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,375 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,475 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,525 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$81
N/A
N/A
$81
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,700 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,727
N/A
N/A
$3,668
Settled
No
kalshi

6,750 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,633
N/A
N/A
$1,477
Settled
No
kalshi

6,725 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,269
N/A
N/A
$1,654
Settled
No
kalshi

6,675 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,596
N/A
N/A
$2,147
Settled
No
kalshi

6,800 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,180
N/A
N/A
$1,961
Settled
No
kalshi

6,775 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,084
N/A
N/A
$1,519
Settled
No
kalshi

6,825 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,147
N/A
N/A
$1,145
Settled
No
kalshi

6,875 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$127
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
No
kalshi

6,850 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
No
kalshi

6,900 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 12?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,125 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,125 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6,425 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,100 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on March 12, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down/Tie), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary contracts each tied to specific price thresholds. The two platforms use fundamentally different resolution architectures despite referencing the same underlying asset and date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses relative directional resolution (vs. prior close) while Kalshi uses absolute threshold-based resolution (60 separate binary contracts). These represent incompatible market architectures for the same underlying event, creating basis risk and preventing direct arbitrage.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate market families, not as redundant coverage of the same outcome. Polymarket is a directional bet; Kalshi contracts are level-based bets. Your trading strategy must account for this structural difference. Additionally, Kalshi does not specify its official price source, while Polymarket explicitly uses WSJ Historical Prices—verify Kalshi's source before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional relative comparison market. Resolves Up if March 12, 2026 SPX close exceeds the most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trade. Uses WSJ Historical Prices (Close values) as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price if no official close exists.
  • Kalshi: 60 separate binary threshold contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day SPX on March 12, 2026 exceeds a specific absolute price level (6024.9999 through 7499.9999 in 25-point increments). No relative comparison logic; no tie resolution; no explicit resolution source specified. All 60 conditions are independent Yes/No outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.