TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 11?
Volume:
$72,358
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 index closes higher or lower on March 11, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. The markets measure directional movement but employ fundamentally different resolution methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price comparison (Up/Down), while Kalshi uses absolute index level thresholds. These measure different things and will not always align.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi positions are hedges. Polymarket Up means SPX closed higher than the prior trading day; Kalshi Yes means SPX closed above a specific price level. A market could be Up on Polymarket but fail to reach the Kalshi threshold, or vice versa. Verify which framework matches your actual directional or level-based thesis before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Relative comparison framework. Resolves Up if March 11 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 11 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: Absolute threshold framework. Contains 50 independent binary conditions, each resolving Yes if end-of-day SPX exceeds a specific price level. Thresholds range from 6024.9999 (lowest) to 7499.9999 (highest). No explicit No resolution logic or source specified. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 11, 2026 is above 7024.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.' (repeated for 50 different thresholds).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.