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399,592

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30,097

events

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2,622

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5

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VS.

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 11?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 11?

Volume:
$72,358

6,775 or above

 - Kalshi

6,775 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 11, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,775 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,330
N/A
N/A
$9,392
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,811
N/A
N/A
$6,540
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,725 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,373
N/A
N/A
$1,050
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,881
N/A
N/A
$2,385
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,675 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,385
N/A
N/A
$1,143
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$924
N/A
N/A
$907
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,625 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$467
N/A
N/A
$437
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,550 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$375
N/A
N/A
$280
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,575 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$357
N/A
N/A
$355
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$262
N/A
N/A
$262
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,800 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,342
N/A
N/A
$2,228
Settled
No
kalshi

6,850 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,603
N/A
N/A
$2,369
Settled
No
kalshi

6,825 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,498
N/A
N/A
$695
Settled
No
kalshi

6,900 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$959
N/A
N/A
$862
Settled
No
kalshi

6,875 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$383
N/A
N/A
$303
Settled
No
kalshi

6,950 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
$192
Settled
No
kalshi

6,975 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$145
N/A
N/A
$145
Settled
No
kalshi

6,925 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
No
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 11?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,025 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,000 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6,425 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,475 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,525 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,350 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 index closes higher or lower on March 11, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. The markets measure directional movement but employ fundamentally different resolution methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price comparison (Up/Down), while Kalshi uses absolute index level thresholds. These measure different things and will not always align.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi positions are hedges. Polymarket Up means SPX closed higher than the prior trading day; Kalshi Yes means SPX closed above a specific price level. A market could be Up on Polymarket but fail to reach the Kalshi threshold, or vice versa. Verify which framework matches your actual directional or level-based thesis before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Relative comparison framework. Resolves Up if March 11 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 11 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Absolute threshold framework. Contains 50 independent binary conditions, each resolving Yes if end-of-day SPX exceeds a specific price level. Thresholds range from 6024.9999 (lowest) to 7499.9999 (highest). No explicit No resolution logic or source specified. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 11, 2026 is above 7024.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.' (repeated for 50 different thresholds).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.