TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of February?
Volume:
$324,251
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 (SPX) will close above various price thresholds on the final trading day of February 2026. Polymarket offers six binary markets at specific price levels ($6,700, $6,860, $6,940, $7,000, $7,060, $7,140), while Kalshi provides a continuous range structure covering all price points from below $6,500 to above $7,200.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Market structure and design divergence: Polymarket uses discrete binary thresholds at specific price points, while Kalshi uses continuous overlapping price bands. Both target the same settlement date (February 27, 2026) and data source (SPX closing price), but the economic exposure and resolution mechanics differ fundamentally.Hero Tip:
Both platforms resolve on the same date using the same underlying index value. However, Polymarket offers targeted binary bets on specific price levels, while Kalshi's range structure means almost any outcome between $6,500-$7,200 resolves YES. Choose Polymarket if you have a specific price conviction; choose Kalshi if you want broad directional exposure. Cross-platform arbitrage is limited because the market structures are incompatible.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Six discrete binary markets at price thresholds: $6,700, $6,860, $6,940, $7,000, $7,060, $7,140. Each resolves YES if SPX closes ABOVE that level on the final trading day of February 2026. Resolution source: Yahoo Finance SPX Close price. Includes fallback logic for shortened sessions or trading halts.
- Kalshi: Thirty continuous overlapping price bands covering $6,500-$7,200+. Each band resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on February 27, 2026 falls within that range. Only outcomes below $6,500 resolve NO. This creates a range-based structure rather than threshold-based binary outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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