TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of February?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of February?

Volume:
$324,251

>$6,860

 - Polymarket

>$6,860 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 28, 2026

Closed: Feb 27, 7:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

>$6,860

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,904
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

>$6,700

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,607
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,875 to 6,899.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,245
N/A
N/A
$13,708
Settled
Yes
polymarket

>$6,940

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>$7,060

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,587
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6,900 to 6,924.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,069
N/A
N/A
$14,705
Settled
No
kalshi

6,925 to 6,949.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,280
N/A
N/A
$13,162
Settled
No
kalshi

6,850 to 6,874.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,596
N/A
N/A
$9,381
Settled
No
polymarket

>$7,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,586
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6,825 to 6,849.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,351
N/A
N/A
$4,974
Settled
No
kalshi

6,950 to 6,974.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,060
N/A
N/A
$7,598
Settled
No
polymarket

>$7,140

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,180
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,000 to 7,024.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,507
N/A
N/A
$4,200
Settled
No
kalshi

6,975 to 6,999.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,853
N/A
N/A
$4,203
Settled
No
kalshi

6,800 to 6,824.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,821
N/A
N/A
$3,128
Settled
No
kalshi

6,775 to 6,799.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,391
N/A
N/A
$2,281
Settled
No
kalshi

6,500 to 6,524.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,567
N/A
N/A
$2,567
Settled
No
kalshi

7,025 to 7,049.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,542
N/A
N/A
$2,465
Settled
No
kalshi

6,750 to 6,774.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,291
N/A
N/A
$1,964
Settled
No
kalshi

7,050 to 7,074.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,141
N/A
N/A
$2,131
Settled
No
kalshi

6,499.9999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,117
N/A
N/A
$1,116
Settled
No
kalshi

6,600 to 6,624.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
$799
Settled
No
kalshi

6,550 to 6,574.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$763
N/A
N/A
$763
Settled
No
kalshi

6,575 to 6,599.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$753
N/A
N/A
$753
Settled
No
kalshi

6,525 to 6,549.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$714
N/A
N/A
$714
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 36

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 (SPX) will close above various price thresholds on the final trading day of February 2026. Polymarket offers six binary markets at specific price levels ($6,700, $6,860, $6,940, $7,000, $7,060, $7,140), while Kalshi provides a continuous range structure covering all price points from below $6,500 to above $7,200.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market structure and design divergence: Polymarket uses discrete binary thresholds at specific price points, while Kalshi uses continuous overlapping price bands. Both target the same settlement date (February 27, 2026) and data source (SPX closing price), but the economic exposure and resolution mechanics differ fundamentally.Hero tip: Both platforms resolve on the same date using the same underlying index value. However, Polymarket offers targeted binary bets on specific price levels, while Kalshi's range structure means almost any outcome between $6,500-$7,200 resolves YES. Choose Polymarket if you have a specific price conviction; choose Kalshi if you want broad directional exposure. Cross-platform arbitrage is limited because the market structures are incompatible.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Six discrete binary markets at price thresholds: $6,700, $6,860, $6,940, $7,000, $7,060, $7,140. Each resolves YES if SPX closes ABOVE that level on the final trading day of February 2026. Resolution source: Yahoo Finance SPX Close price. Includes fallback logic for shortened sessions or trading halts.
  • Kalshi: Thirty continuous overlapping price bands covering $6,500-$7,200+. Each band resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on February 27, 2026 falls within that range. Only outcomes below $6,500 resolve NO. This creates a range-based structure rather than threshold-based binary outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.