TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on March 30?
Volume:
$12,381
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group compares Silver (XAGUSD) price movement on March 30, 2026. Polymarket's market resolves based on directional comparison to the prior trading day's close, while Kalshi offers 40 separate binary markets each tied to absolute price thresholds at 5 PM EDT on that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ fundamentally different market architectures: Polymarket is a binary directional comparison (Up vs Down vs prior close), while Kalshi offers 40 separate absolute price-level markets. These cannot be unified into a single resolution framework.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two distinct market families. Polymarket bets on relative movement; Kalshi bets on absolute price levels. Your trading strategy must account for this structural difference. For example, if silver closes at $68.50 on March 30, Polymarket resolves based on whether that is higher or lower than the prior day's close, while Kalshi's $68.50 threshold market resolves Yes, but the $68.75 market resolves No.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market comparing March 30 close to prior trading day close. Resolves Up, Down, or 50-50 (tie or no trade). Uses Pyth Close at 5:00 PM ET as primary source, with CME COMEX Silver Futures as fallback. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on March 30, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each with a fixed absolute price threshold. All resolve Yes if March 30 5 PM EDT close exceeds the threshold, No otherwise. Thresholds span $64.00 to $73.75 in increments of $0.25 to $0.75. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on March 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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