TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 8?
Volume:
$31,771
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group compares silver (XAGUSD) price movement on April 8, 2026 across two fundamentally different resolution frameworks. Kalshi defines 40 separate binary outcomes based on specific price thresholds at 5 PM EDT, while Polymarket resolves based on whether April 8's closing price is higher or lower than the prior trading day's close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use incompatible resolution architectures: Kalshi resolves on absolute price thresholds (40 separate binary outcomes), while Polymarket resolves on relative day-over-day price movement. A single April 8 price outcome cannot satisfy both frameworks simultaneously.Hero Tip:
These markets are structurally independent. Kalshi outcomes depend only on April 8's 5 PM EDT close against fixed price levels. Polymarket depends on the April 7 close as a moving baseline. Before trading Polymarket, identify the prior trading day's official close price from Pyth. A price move that triggers multiple Kalshi markets may still resolve Down on Polymarket if April 7 closed higher.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each with an absolute price threshold (68.00 to 77.75 USD/t.oz). Resolves Yes if 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on April 8, 2026 meets or exceeds the specified threshold. All thresholds are independent; multiple markets can resolve Yes simultaneously if price is sufficiently high. Key quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on April 08, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| [PRICE] USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Single binary market resolving Up/Down based on relative price movement. Resolves Up if April 8 close > prior trading day close, Down if April 8 close < prior trading day close, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth 1-minute candle at 4:59 PM ET, with fallback to CME COMEX Silver Futures. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on April 8, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.