TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 2?
Volume:
$12,227
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Silver (XAGUSD) will close higher or lower on April 2, 2026. Kalshi offers 40 binary markets, each tied to specific price thresholds at the 5 PM EDT close. Polymarket offers a single relative comparison market: April 2 close versus the most recent prior trading day close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure different settlement values: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds; Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price movement. Both reference the same 5 PM EDT close on April 2, 2026, but the resolution logic and winning conditions are structurally incompatible.Hero Tip:
Understand your bet: Kalshi requires silver to exceed a fixed price level; Polymarket requires silver to close higher than the prior trading day, regardless of absolute level. These are independent outcomes. Confirm which market type aligns with your directional view before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Absolute price threshold model. 40 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific XAGUSD price level (e.g., $69.50, $70.00, $79.25). Resolves Yes if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on April 2, 2026 exceeds the stated threshold. All thresholds reference the same timestamp and data source (1-minute candle close).
- Polymarket: Relative price movement model. Single binary market comparing April 2, 2026 close to the most recent prior trading day close. Resolves Up if April 2 > prior day; Down if April 2 < prior day; 50-50 if equal, no trade, or either day is not a trading day. Uses Pyth as authoritative source; falls back to CME COMEX Silver Futures if Pyth data unavailable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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