TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?
Total volume:
$3,649
Volume 24h:
$0
0%
Liquidity:
$3,525
0.04%
Open interest:
$1,594
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ruben Gallego ceases to be a United States Senator from Arizona by May 31, 2026, for any reason including resignation, removal, or expulsion. Both platforms assess the same core binary outcome: whether Gallego's Senate seat becomes vacant during the specified window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Temporal scope divergence: Polymarket covers the full period from market creation through May 31, 2026, while Kalshi restricts resolution to events occurring specifically in May 2026. Additionally, Polymarket's announcement-before-effective-date rule creates a timing trigger mismatch.Hero Tip:
Arbitrage risk exists for early-year exits (Jan-Apr 2026). Polymarket YES bets are safer if you expect Gallego to leave before May; Kalshi YES bets require the exit to occur in May specifically. Monitor announcement dates separately from effective dates on Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Covers any cessation of Senate status between market creation and May 31, 2026. Announcement of resignation/removal before market end date triggers immediate YES resolution, regardless of when the announced action takes effect. Resolution source: official Gallego/U.S. government information or credible reporting consensus.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES only if resignation or expulsion occurs in May 2026 specifically. No announcement-triggered resolution; the actual event must occur within the May 2026 calendar month.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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