TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Rheinland-Pfalz Parliamentary Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Rheinland-Pfalz Parliamentary Election Winner

Volume:
$1,960,384

CDU

 - Polymarket

CDU - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 23, 2026

Closed: Mar 21, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

CDU

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$642,390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

CDU

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,872
N/A
N/A
$9,632
Settled
Yes
polymarket

AfD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$448,141
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

SPD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$446,134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Grüne

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132,091
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

BSW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93,987
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Linke

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,953
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

FDP

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51,509
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

FW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

SPD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,871
N/A
N/A
$11,742
Settled
No
kalshi

AfD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,788
N/A
N/A
$1,778
Settled
No
polymarket

Party A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party I

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party K

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party M

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party O

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party J

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party L

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 27

Description

The 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary election will determine which political party wins the greatest number of seats in the Landtag (state parliament) on March 22, 2026. Both platforms are asking which party will secure the most seats, making this a straightforward plurality winner market. The resolution hinges on official seat counts from the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter), with Zweitstimme (second votes) as the tiebreaker.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines the winner as the party with the most seats, with explicit tie-breaking rules (Zweitstimme votes, then alphabetical order), while Kalshi only specifies three named parties (CDU, SPD, AfD) without defining what happens if other parties win the most seats or how to resolve ties. Polymarket's market group includes 25 options covering all realistic outcomes; Kalshi's three binary markets create a logical gap where no market resolves YES if a party outside {CDU, SPD, AfD} wins.Hero tip: Critical trading risk: If BSW, Grüne, or any other party wins the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate election, Polymarket will resolve to that party, but all three Kalshi markets will resolve NO (or remain unresolved), creating a complete divergence in settlement outcomes. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket will settle identically. Verify which platform you are trading on before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket resolves based on the party winning the most seats in the Landtag, with explicit tie-breaking by Zweitstimme (second votes) and alphabetical order of party abbreviations. The market group includes 25 options (named parties plus 'another party'), ensuring exactly one market resolves YES for any realistic outcome. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking' and 'This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides only three binary markets, each resolving YES if CDU, SPD, or AfD respectively wins the election, with no definition of resolution if any other party wins the most seats. The platform does not specify tie-breaking rules or what constitutes 'winning.' Key quote: 'If CDU wins the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, then the market resolves to Yes' (same structure for SPD and AfD only).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.