TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 27?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) on April 27, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) on April 27, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.QQQ%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.QQQ%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different outcomes: Polymarket resolves on directional movement (Up/Down vs. prior day), while Kalshi resolves on whether the absolute price level falls within one of 30 pre-specified 100-point bands. These contract types are not interchangeable.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket Up = Kalshi Yes. Polymarket Up means April 27 close > April 26 close (any magnitude). Kalshi Yes means April 27 close falls in one of 30 bands (25300–28099.99, with 10 gaps). A Polymarket Up outcome could easily resolve No on Kalshi if the prior-day close was within one of Kalshi's gap zones. Understand which contract type matches your trading thesis.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if April 27 close > prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close values (1-minute candle at 4:00 PM ET) with fallback to last valid Pyth price or official exchange close. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) on April 27, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: Absolute price-level band market. Resolves Yes if end-of-day QQQ value on April 27 falls within ANY of 30 specified 100-point ranges (e.g., 25300–25399.99, 25400–25499.99, ..., 28000–28099.99, or above 28099.99). Resolves No if value falls in any of the 10 gaps (e.g., 25200–25299.99, 25800–25899.99, etc.). Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on April 27, 2026 is between [X] and [Y], then the market resolves to Yes.'
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