TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Precipitation in Seattle in May?
Total volume:
$2,279
Volume 24h:
$521
721%
Liquidity:
$1,357
106%
Open interest:
$951
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group addresses precipitation in Seattle during May 2026. However, Kalshi markets measure precipitation in San Francisco (at CLISFO station), while Polymarket markets measure precipitation in Seattle. The group name references Seattle, but the underlying data sources are geographically misaligned, creating a fundamental scope divergence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Geographic scope mismatch: Kalshi measures San Francisco precipitation while Polymarket measures Seattle precipitation. This is a data integrity failure—the markets are measuring different physical locations despite the group name referencing Seattle only.Hero Tip:
These are fundamentally different bets. Kalshi's San Francisco data is irrelevant to the stated event (Seattle precipitation). If you intend to trade on Seattle weather, use only Polymarket. If Kalshi is intended to cover Seattle, contact the platform immediately—the resolution source is wrong.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Measures precipitation at CLISFO station in San Francisco, May 2026. Seven overlapping YES thresholds (>1, >2, >3, >4, >5, >6, >7 inches). No NO resolution path is defined. Key Quote: 'If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in May 2026 is strictly greater than [X] inches, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Measures precipitation in Seattle (NOAA Seattle City Area) via weather.gov, May 1-31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Eight mutually exclusive brackets: <0.5, 0.5-1, 1-1.5, 1.5-2, 2-2.5, 2.5-3, >3 inches. Ties resolved to higher bracket. Precision: 2 decimal places. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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