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405,232

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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 1?
kalshi
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 1?

Volume:
$5,819

above $2.805

 - Kalshi

above $2.805 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 1, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $2.805

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$253
N/A
N/A
$253
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.800

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$229
N/A
N/A
$217
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.810

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$148
N/A
N/A
$147
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.735

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 1?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$755
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.815

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$579
N/A
N/A
$577
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.845

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$540
N/A
N/A
$346
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.850

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$517
N/A
N/A
$415
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.835

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$512
N/A
N/A
$475
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.825

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$508
N/A
N/A
$444
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.820

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$435
N/A
N/A
$432
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.840

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$383
N/A
N/A
$239
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.855

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$338
N/A
N/A
$216
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.875

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$276
N/A
N/A
$266
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.860

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$183
N/A
N/A
$183
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.865

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.830

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
$41
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.970

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.880

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.870

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.920

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.915

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.890

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

above $2.675

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.680

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures will close higher or lower on April 1, 2026. Kalshi offers 60 binary YES/NO markets each tied to specific price thresholds above $2.675, while Polymarket offers a single comparative market measuring price movement relative to the prior trading day's close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ fundamentally incompatible market structures: Kalshi uses 60 absolute price-threshold binary markets, while Polymarket uses a single relative price-movement market. Both reference the same underlying data source (Pyth 1-minute candle close at 5:00 PM ET on April 1, 2026) but measure different outcomes.Hero tip: Understand that these markets are not alternatives or hedges. Kalshi markets isolate specific price levels; Polymarket isolates directional movement. A trader bullish on NG should evaluate which structure aligns with their conviction: do you believe NG will exceed a specific price, or simply that it will move up from the prior close? The April 1 settlement price will resolve all Kalshi thresholds simultaneously but only one Polymarket outcome.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 60 independent YES/NO binary markets, each tied to an absolute price threshold ranging from $2.675 to $2.970. All reference the 1-minute candlestick close at 5:00 PM EDT on April 1, 2026. Resolution: YES if close > threshold, NO otherwise. All 60 markets share identical timing and data source (Pyth). Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on April 01, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary market measuring relative price movement: UP if April 1 close > prior trading day close, DOWN if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close from 5:00 PM ET 1-minute candle, with fallback to last valid Pyth price or CME official close if data unavailable. Accounts for contract rollover (active month changes at 6:00 PM ET two business days before last trading day). Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on April 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.