TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 1?
Volume:
$5,819
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures will close higher or lower on April 1, 2026. Kalshi offers 60 binary YES/NO markets each tied to specific price thresholds above $2.675, while Polymarket offers a single comparative market measuring price movement relative to the prior trading day's close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket employ fundamentally incompatible market structures: Kalshi uses 60 absolute price-threshold binary markets, while Polymarket uses a single relative price-movement market. Both reference the same underlying data source (Pyth 1-minute candle close at 5:00 PM ET on April 1, 2026) but measure different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Understand that these markets are not alternatives or hedges. Kalshi markets isolate specific price levels; Polymarket isolates directional movement. A trader bullish on NG should evaluate which structure aligns with their conviction: do you believe NG will exceed a specific price, or simply that it will move up from the prior close? The April 1 settlement price will resolve all Kalshi thresholds simultaneously but only one Polymarket outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 60 independent YES/NO binary markets, each tied to an absolute price threshold ranging from $2.675 to $2.970. All reference the 1-minute candlestick close at 5:00 PM EDT on April 1, 2026. Resolution: YES if close > threshold, NO otherwise. All 60 markets share identical timing and data source (Pyth). Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on April 01, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Single binary market measuring relative price movement: UP if April 1 close > prior trading day close, DOWN if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close from 5:00 PM ET 1-minute candle, with fallback to last valid Pyth price or CME official close if data unavailable. Accounts for contract rollover (active month changes at 6:00 PM ET two business days before last trading day). Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on April 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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