TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 31?
Volume:
$38,526
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 31, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 individual binary contracts at different price thresholds. Both use official NDX closing prices as the settlement value.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Market structure divergence: Polymarket offers a single directional comparison (Up/Down/Tie vs prior day), while Kalshi offers 60 independent threshold-based binary contracts. These are fundamentally different product types and cannot be unified into a single resolution framework.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets. Polymarket is a day-over-day directional bet; Kalshi contracts are absolute-level bets. Your trading strategy and risk profile will differ significantly between the two. Confirm which structure aligns with your intent before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Single binary market comparing March 31, 2026 NDX close to prior trading day close. Resolves Up (higher), Down (lower), or 50-50 (equal or no trade). Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Tuesday, March 31, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: 60 independent binary contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 31, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (20099.99 to 25999.99). Each contract is a separate market with its own Yes/No outcome. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 31, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.