TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 31?

polymarket

kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 31?

Volume:

$38,526

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 31?

- Polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 31? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 1, 2026

Closed: Mar 31, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 31?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10,987

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$9,369

N/A

N/A

$5,675

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3,760

N/A

N/A

$1,398

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2,568

N/A

N/A

$2,161

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,757

N/A

N/A

$1,757

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,444

N/A

N/A

$1,225

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,046

N/A

N/A

$706

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$938

N/A

N/A

$708

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$879

N/A

N/A

$692

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$873

N/A

N/A

$433

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$494

N/A

N/A

$484

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$479

N/A

N/A

$361

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$347

N/A

N/A

$337

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$301

N/A

N/A

$300

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$110

N/A

N/A

$110

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$110

N/A

N/A

$110

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$104

N/A

N/A

$104

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$101

N/A

N/A

$101

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$101

N/A

N/A

$101

Settled

Yes

kalshi

20,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$100

N/A

N/A

$100

Settled

Yes

kalshi

20,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$100

N/A

N/A

$100

Settled

Yes

kalshi

20,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$100

N/A

N/A

$100

Settled

Yes

kalshi

20,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$100

N/A

N/A

$100

Settled

Yes

kalshi

20,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$100

N/A

N/A

$100

Settled

Yes

kalshi

20,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$100

N/A

N/A

$100

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 31, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 individual binary contracts at different price thresholds. Both use official NDX closing prices as the settlement value.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market structure divergence: Polymarket offers a single directional comparison (Up/Down/Tie vs prior day), while Kalshi offers 60 independent threshold-based binary contracts. These are fundamentally different product types and cannot be unified into a single resolution framework.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets. Polymarket is a day-over-day directional bet; Kalshi contracts are absolute-level bets. Your trading strategy and risk profile will differ significantly between the two. Confirm which structure aligns with your intent before trading.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Single binary market comparing March 31, 2026 NDX close to prior trading day close. Resolves Up (higher), Down (lower), or 50-50 (equal or no trade). Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Tuesday, March 31, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Kalshi: 60 independent binary contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 31, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (20099.99 to 25999.99). Each contract is a separate market with its own Yes/No outcome. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 31, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.