TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 3?
Volume:
$102,700
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 3, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. The markets measure the same underlying index but employ fundamentally different resolution methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative price movement (vs prior trading day close) while Kalshi uses absolute index level thresholds. These are fundamentally different resolution methodologies applied to the same event date.Hero Tip:
Polymarket bets on direction relative to the prior close; Kalshi bets on absolute index levels. These are not interchangeable. Choose your platform based on whether you have a view on relative movement or absolute price targets. Kalshi's 60 separate threshold conditions create a ladder of Yes outcomes; Polymarket's binary Up/Down is simpler but depends on prior-day data.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Relative comparison framework. Resolves Up if March 3 close exceeds the most recent prior trading day close, Down if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trading. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Tuesday, March 3, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: Absolute threshold framework. 60 separate conditions, each resolving to Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 3, 2026 exceeds a specific price level. Thresholds range from 21899.99 to 27799.99 in 100-point increments. No explicit handling of edge cases (trading halts, shortened sessions, no trade scenarios) documented. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 03, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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