TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 27?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 27, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 27, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logics. Kalshi resolves YES for virtually all possible NDX closing values on March 27, 2026 (covering the entire range from below 22900 to above 25699.99), making the market logically incoherent. Polymarket resolves based on directional change (Up/Down) relative to the prior trading day's close, a completely different settlement mechanism.Hero Tip:
Do not trade this group. Kalshi's market is mathematically broken—it resolves YES for every realistic outcome, rendering the YES/NO distinction meaningless. Polymarket's market is resolvable but incompatible with Kalshi. If forced to choose, trade only Polymarket, which has clear directional logic. Avoid Kalshi entirely pending rule clarification.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if NDX closes in any of 30 specified 100-point bands (23000–23099.99, 23100–23199.99, ... 25600–25699.99) OR below 22900 OR above 25699.99. This covers the entire possible range of NDX values, meaning the market resolves YES for every realistic outcome and NO for no outcome. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 27, 2026 is below 22900, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 27, 2026 is above 25699.9900, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves UP if NDX closes higher than the prior trading day's close, DOWN if lower, and 50-50 if equal or no trade occurs. This is a directional comparison market, not an absolute-value market. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 27, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.