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Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 27?
kalshi
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 27?

Volume:
$52,965

23,100 to 23,199.99

 - Kalshi

23,100 to 23,199.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 27, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

23,100 to 23,199.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,027
N/A
N/A
$1,853
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 27?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,700 to 23,799.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,805
N/A
N/A
$2,681
Settled
No
kalshi

24,000 to 24,099.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,398
N/A
N/A
$2,972
Settled
No
kalshi

23,200 to 23,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,681
N/A
N/A
$1,192
Settled
No
kalshi

24,600 to 24,699.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,069
N/A
N/A
$1,078
Settled
No
kalshi

23,000 to 23,099.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,036
N/A
N/A
$1,015
Settled
No
kalshi

24,100 to 24,199.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,033
N/A
N/A
$1,531
Settled
No
kalshi

22,899.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,787
N/A
N/A
$1,746
Settled
No
kalshi

22,900 to 22,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,783
N/A
N/A
$1,727
Settled
No
kalshi

23,800 to 23,899.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,779
N/A
N/A
$1,460
Settled
No
kalshi

23,300 to 23,399.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,569
N/A
N/A
$1,242
Settled
No
kalshi

23,400 to 23,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,382
N/A
N/A
$1,237
Settled
No
kalshi

24,400 to 24,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,296
N/A
N/A
$1,043
Settled
No
kalshi

23,900 to 23,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,141
N/A
N/A
$909
Settled
No
kalshi

23,500 to 23,599.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,077
N/A
N/A
$1,018
Settled
No
kalshi

24,500 to 24,599.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$863
N/A
N/A
$504
Settled
No
kalshi

23,600 to 23,699.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$777
N/A
N/A
$767
Settled
No
kalshi

24,700 to 24,799.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$517
N/A
N/A
$117
Settled
No
kalshi

24,800 to 24,899.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$510
N/A
N/A
$369
Settled
No
kalshi

24,200 to 24,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
$315
Settled
No
kalshi

24,300 to 24,399.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$415
N/A
N/A
$415
Settled
No
kalshi

25,500 to 25,599.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$396
N/A
N/A
$396
Settled
No
kalshi

25,000 to 25,099.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$178
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
No
kalshi

25,400 to 25,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
$113
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 27, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 27, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logics. Kalshi resolves YES for virtually all possible NDX closing values on March 27, 2026 (covering the entire range from below 22900 to above 25699.99), making the market logically incoherent. Polymarket resolves based on directional change (Up/Down) relative to the prior trading day's close, a completely different settlement mechanism.Hero tip: Do not trade this group. Kalshi's market is mathematically broken—it resolves YES for every realistic outcome, rendering the YES/NO distinction meaningless. Polymarket's market is resolvable but incompatible with Kalshi. If forced to choose, trade only Polymarket, which has clear directional logic. Avoid Kalshi entirely pending rule clarification.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if NDX closes in any of 30 specified 100-point bands (23000–23099.99, 23100–23199.99, ... 25600–25699.99) OR below 22900 OR above 25699.99. This covers the entire possible range of NDX values, meaning the market resolves YES for every realistic outcome and NO for no outcome. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 27, 2026 is below 22900, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 27, 2026 is above 25699.9900, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves UP if NDX closes higher than the prior trading day's close, DOWN if lower, and 50-50 if equal or no trade occurs. This is a directional comparison market, not an absolute-value market. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 27, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.