TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 23?

polymarket

kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 23?

Volume:

$43,017

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 23?

- Polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 23? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 24, 2026

Closed: Mar 23, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 23?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$4,842

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$4,098

N/A

N/A

$4,098

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3,260

N/A

N/A

$2,295

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2,539

N/A

N/A

$1,384

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2,075

N/A

N/A

$2,075

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,746

N/A

N/A

$1,620

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,392

N/A

N/A

$1,392

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,213

N/A

N/A

$1,037

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,197

N/A

N/A

$1,089

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$960

N/A

N/A

$357

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$690

N/A

N/A

$690

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$601

N/A

N/A

$493

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$596

N/A

N/A

$596

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$561

N/A

N/A

$561

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$547

N/A

N/A

$547

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$521

N/A

N/A

$521

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$437

N/A

N/A

$427

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$209

N/A

N/A

$179

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$134

N/A

N/A

$134

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$129

N/A

N/A

$99

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$111

N/A

N/A

$96

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$69

N/A

N/A

$69

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$68

N/A

N/A

$68

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$58

N/A

N/A

$58

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$57

N/A

N/A

$57

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index closes higher or lower on Monday, March 23, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. The resolution compares official closing prices, with the outcome determined by directional movement (up/down) or exact equality (50-50 tie).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down relative to prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute index level thresholds (50 distinct price points). These frameworks cannot produce identical outcomes for the same NDX closing value on March 23, 2026.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. A Polymarket YES (NDX up from prior close) could coexist with a Kalshi NO (if the absolute level falls below all 50 thresholds), or vice versa. Verify the prior trading day close before March 23 and cross-reference against Kalshi's threshold ladder to identify potential arbitrage or hedge opportunities.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves YES/NO based on directional comparison—YES if March 23 closing price is higher than the most recent prior trading day close (typically Friday, March 22, 2026, or the next most recent trading day if that date is a holiday), NO if lower, and 50-50 if equal. Source is Wall Street Journal Historical Prices Close values. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Monday, March 23, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if end-of-day NDX on March 23, 2026 exceeds any of 50 distinct absolute price thresholds (ranging from 21,299.99 to 27,199.99 in $100 increments). Each of the 50 markets is independent; a single NDX close will trigger YES for all thresholds below it and NO for all thresholds above it. Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 23, 2026 is above 22899.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.