TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 23?
Volume:
$43,017
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index closes higher or lower on Monday, March 23, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. The resolution compares official closing prices, with the outcome determined by directional movement (up/down) or exact equality (50-50 tie).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down relative to prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute index level thresholds (50 distinct price points). These frameworks cannot produce identical outcomes for the same NDX closing value on March 23, 2026.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. A Polymarket YES (NDX up from prior close) could coexist with a Kalshi NO (if the absolute level falls below all 50 thresholds), or vice versa. Verify the prior trading day close before March 23 and cross-reference against Kalshi's threshold ladder to identify potential arbitrage or hedge opportunities.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves YES/NO based on directional comparison—YES if March 23 closing price is higher than the most recent prior trading day close (typically Friday, March 22, 2026, or the next most recent trading day if that date is a holiday), NO if lower, and 50-50 if equal. Source is Wall Street Journal Historical Prices Close values. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Monday, March 23, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if end-of-day NDX on March 23, 2026 exceeds any of 50 distinct absolute price thresholds (ranging from 21,299.99 to 27,199.99 in $100 increments). Each of the 50 markets is independent; a single NDX close will trigger YES for all thresholds below it and NO for all thresholds above it. Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 23, 2026 is above 22899.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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