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Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 20?
kalshi
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 20?

Volume:
$45,486

23,800 to 23,899.99

 - Kalshi

23,800 to 23,899.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 20, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

23,800 to 23,899.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,816
N/A
N/A
$1,814
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,200 to 23,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,589
N/A
N/A
$5,869
Settled
No
kalshi

24,900 to 24,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,626
N/A
N/A
$2,950
Settled
No
kalshi

24,200 to 24,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,513
N/A
N/A
$624
Settled
No
kalshi

24,000 to 24,099.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,556
N/A
N/A
$1,735
Settled
No
kalshi

24,300 to 24,399.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,512
N/A
N/A
$2,021
Settled
No
kalshi

23,900 to 23,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,208
N/A
N/A
$1,517
Settled
No
kalshi

24,400 to 24,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,082
N/A
N/A
$1,293
Settled
No
kalshi

24,700 to 24,799.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,001
N/A
N/A
$1,008
Settled
No
kalshi

25,000 to 25,099.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,945
N/A
N/A
$1,197
Settled
No
kalshi

23,700 to 23,799.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,693
N/A
N/A
$1,351
Settled
No
kalshi

25,200 to 25,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,533
N/A
N/A
$1,024
Settled
No
kalshi

24,800 to 24,899.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,187
N/A
N/A
$1,007
Settled
No
kalshi

24,500 to 24,599.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,130
N/A
N/A
$655
Settled
No
kalshi

23,300 to 23,399.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,051
N/A
N/A
$1,039
Settled
No
kalshi

25,100 to 25,199.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$936
Settled
No
kalshi

25,400 to 25,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$997
N/A
N/A
$947
Settled
No
kalshi

24,600 to 24,699.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$983
N/A
N/A
$537
Settled
No
kalshi

23,600 to 23,699.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$922
N/A
N/A
$912
Settled
No
kalshi

23,099.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$891
N/A
N/A
$744
Settled
No
kalshi

25,300 to 25,399.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$885
N/A
N/A
$885
Settled
No
kalshi

24,100 to 24,199.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
$611
Settled
No
kalshi

23,400 to 23,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$645
N/A
N/A
$612
Settled
No
kalshi

25,900 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$437
N/A
N/A
$306
Settled
No
kalshi

23,100 to 23,199.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$392
N/A
N/A
$261
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 20, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 20, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logics. Kalshi resolves YES for 30 specific price ranges covering nearly the entire realistic NDX spectrum (below 23100 through above 25900), making it logically impossible to resolve NO. Polymarket resolves based on directional movement (Up vs Down) relative to the prior trading day's close, a completely different settlement mechanism.Hero tip: Do not trade these markets as if they are equivalent. On Kalshi, YES will almost certainly resolve to YES regardless of NDX price movement on March 20, 2026, because the rules cover nearly all possible outcomes. On Polymarket, your outcome depends entirely on whether NDX closes higher or lower than March 19's close—a directional bet, not a price-level bet. Arbitrage or hedging between these two platforms is extremely risky due to the logical mismatch.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if NDX closes within any of 30 specified 100-point price bands (23100–25900) or outside that range entirely (below 23100 or above 25900). This logic covers all realistic NDX prices, leaving no valid NO resolution path. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 20, 2026 is below 23100, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 20, 2026 is above 25899.9900, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves UP if NDX closes higher than the prior trading day (March 19, 2026), DOWN if lower, and 50-50 if equal or no trade occurs. This is a directional comparison, not a price-level bet. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 20, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.