TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 20?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 20, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 20, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logics. Kalshi resolves YES for 30 specific price ranges covering nearly the entire realistic NDX spectrum (below 23100 through above 25900), making it logically impossible to resolve NO. Polymarket resolves based on directional movement (Up vs Down) relative to the prior trading day's close, a completely different settlement mechanism.Hero Tip:
Do not trade these markets as if they are equivalent. On Kalshi, YES will almost certainly resolve to YES regardless of NDX price movement on March 20, 2026, because the rules cover nearly all possible outcomes. On Polymarket, your outcome depends entirely on whether NDX closes higher or lower than March 19's close—a directional bet, not a price-level bet. Arbitrage or hedging between these two platforms is extremely risky due to the logical mismatch.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if NDX closes within any of 30 specified 100-point price bands (23100–25900) or outside that range entirely (below 23100 or above 25900). This logic covers all realistic NDX prices, leaving no valid NO resolution path. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 20, 2026 is below 23100, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 20, 2026 is above 25899.9900, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves UP if NDX closes higher than the prior trading day (March 19, 2026), DOWN if lower, and 50-50 if equal or no trade occurs. This is a directional comparison, not a price-level bet. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 20, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
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