TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 19?
Volume:
$22,587
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 19, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi offers multiple absolute price level thresholds for the same date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible resolution frameworks: Polymarket resolves on relative price movement (Up/Down vs prior close), while Kalshi resolves on absolute price levels. The two platforms measure fundamentally different things and cannot be unified into a single resolution logic.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate contract types. Polymarket requires knowing the prior trading day's close to determine direction; Kalshi only requires the absolute close on March 19. A single price outcome on March 19 can satisfy multiple Kalshi thresholds but only one Polymarket outcome. Verify the prior close (likely March 18, 2026) before Polymarket settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Relative directional framework. Resolves Up if March 19 NDX close exceeds the most recent prior trading day close, Down if lower, 50-50 if equal. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as source. Includes fallback rules for shortened sessions, trading halts, and no-trade scenarios (all resolve 50-50).
- Kalshi: Absolute price level framework. Contains 60 separate Yes/No conditions, each triggered if end-of-day NDX on March 19 exceeds a specific threshold (21699.99 to 27599.99). No explicit prior-day reference or source attribution. No stated fallback rules for edge cases.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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