TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 18?
Volume:
$19,572
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 18, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary markets each tied to specific absolute price thresholds on that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative day-over-day comparison logic, while Kalshi uses 60 independent absolute price threshold markets. These are structurally different market types with different settlement values and outcomes.Hero Tip:
Polymarket Up/Down depends on the prior trading day close (unknown until March 17); Kalshi Yes/No depends only on the absolute March 18 close. Do not assume these markets will resolve the same way. Map your directional view to the specific Kalshi threshold that matches your price target, and treat Polymarket as a pure relative momentum bet.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Relative comparison market. Resolves Up if March 18 NDX close > most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trade. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price.
- Kalshi: 60 independent absolute threshold markets. Each resolves Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 18, 2026 exceeds a specific price level (thresholds: 21599.99, 21699.99, 21799.99, ... up to 27499.99 in 100-point increments). Each market is binary and independent; no relative logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.