TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 16?
Volume:
$16,424
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on Monday, March 16, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up/Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary contracts each tied to specific price thresholds on that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative directional settlement (vs. prior trading day close), while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. These are structurally incompatible market designs that measure different things.Hero Tip:
Polymarket and Kalshi are not mirror markets. Polymarket Up does not map to any specific Kalshi threshold. If you hold positions on both platforms, monitor the prior trading day close separately and understand that directional movement does not guarantee absolute price level outcomes. Cross-platform hedging is not straightforward.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if March 16 close exceeds the most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trade. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price if no official close exists.
- Kalshi: 60 separate absolute threshold contracts. Each resolves Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 16 exceeds a specific price level (21499.99 to 27399.99). No mention of tie resolution, no-trade handling, or prior-day comparison. No official source specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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