TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 16?

polymarket

kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 16?

Volume:

$16,424

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 16?

- Polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 16? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 16, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 16?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$11,414

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$637

N/A

N/A

$605

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$597

N/A

N/A

$460

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$440

N/A

N/A

$292

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$203

N/A

N/A

$203

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$199

N/A

N/A

$198

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$193

N/A

N/A

$193

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$191

N/A

N/A

$190

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$182

N/A

N/A

$176

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$121

N/A

N/A

$118

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$105

N/A

N/A

$105

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$95

N/A

N/A

$95

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$72

N/A

N/A

$72

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$65

N/A

N/A

$63

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$61

N/A

N/A

$61

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$51

N/A

N/A

$51

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$42

N/A

N/A

$42

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$31

N/A

N/A

$31

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$14

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$13

N/A

N/A

$12

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$12

N/A

N/A

$11

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

21,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6

N/A

N/A

$5

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6

N/A

N/A

$6

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1

N/A

N/A

$1

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on Monday, March 16, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up/Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary contracts each tied to specific price thresholds on that date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses relative directional settlement (vs. prior trading day close), while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. These are structurally incompatible market designs that measure different things.Hero tip: Polymarket and Kalshi are not mirror markets. Polymarket Up does not map to any specific Kalshi threshold. If you hold positions on both platforms, monitor the prior trading day close separately and understand that directional movement does not guarantee absolute price level outcomes. Cross-platform hedging is not straightforward.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if March 16 close exceeds the most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trade. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price if no official close exists.
Kalshi: 60 separate absolute threshold contracts. Each resolves Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 16 exceeds a specific price level (21499.99 to 27399.99). No mention of tie resolution, no-trade handling, or prior-day comparison. No official source specified.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.