TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 13?
Volume:
$49,534
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) will close higher or lower on Friday, March 13, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Kalshi offers a binary Yes/No structure tied to specific price bands, while Polymarket frames it as a directional comparison (Up vs Down) relative to the previous close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses absolute price-band bucketing with no explicit No outcome, while Polymarket uses prior-day directional comparison. The frameworks are incompatible and will produce conflicting resolutions for the same underlying price.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent. Kalshi's ruleset appears incomplete or malformed (all 30 conditions resolve to Yes, leaving no path to No). Polymarket is a standard Up/Down directional market. Verify Kalshi's actual market terms directly on their platform before trading. If Kalshi truly has no No condition, it is unresolvable as written.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Absolute price-band framework: 30 conditions, each tied to a 100-point NDX band (e.g., 26200–26299.99, 25700–25799.99, etc.), all resolving to Yes. No explicit No condition provided. Covers range from <23600 to >26399.99. Logic: If end-of-day NDX on March 13, 2026 falls within any listed band, market resolves Yes.
- Polymarket: Directional comparison framework: Resolves Up if March 13 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 13 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Logic: Outcome depends on price movement, not absolute level.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.