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30,119

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Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 13?
kalshi
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 13?

Volume:
$49,534

24,300 to 24,399.99

 - Kalshi

24,300 to 24,399.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 13, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

24,300 to 24,399.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,560
N/A
N/A
$578
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 13?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,599.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,721
N/A
N/A
$5,409
Settled
No
kalshi

25,500 to 25,599.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,492
N/A
N/A
$3,213
Settled
No
kalshi

25,600 to 25,699.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,148
N/A
N/A
$1,594
Settled
No
kalshi

24,700 to 24,799.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,759
N/A
N/A
$1,732
Settled
No
kalshi

24,800 to 24,899.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,436
N/A
N/A
$1,154
Settled
No
kalshi

24,400 to 24,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,422
N/A
N/A
$904
Settled
No
kalshi

24,900 to 24,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,287
N/A
N/A
$1,235
Settled
No
kalshi

24,200 to 24,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,249
N/A
N/A
$1,156
Settled
No
kalshi

24,600 to 24,699.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,003
N/A
N/A
$779
Settled
No
kalshi

24,500 to 24,599.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$967
N/A
N/A
$736
Settled
No
kalshi

23,600 to 23,699.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$718
N/A
N/A
$718
Settled
No
kalshi

23,700 to 23,799.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$581
N/A
N/A
$581
Settled
No
kalshi

24,100 to 24,199.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$457
N/A
N/A
$305
Settled
No
kalshi

25,100 to 25,199.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$409
N/A
N/A
$387
Settled
No
kalshi

25,800 to 25,899.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$213
N/A
N/A
$207
Settled
No
kalshi

25,200 to 25,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$199
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

25,000 to 25,099.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
$181
Settled
No
kalshi

25,400 to 25,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$161
N/A
N/A
$161
Settled
No
kalshi

25,300 to 25,399.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
$154
Settled
No
kalshi

26,200 to 26,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$118
N/A
N/A
$118
Settled
No
kalshi

24,000 to 24,099.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

23,800 to 23,899.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
No
kalshi

25,700 to 25,799.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
$37
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event group asks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) will close higher or lower on Friday, March 13, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Kalshi offers a binary Yes/No structure tied to specific price bands, while Polymarket frames it as a directional comparison (Up vs Down) relative to the previous close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price-band bucketing with no explicit No outcome, while Polymarket uses prior-day directional comparison. The frameworks are incompatible and will produce conflicting resolutions for the same underlying price.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are equivalent. Kalshi's ruleset appears incomplete or malformed (all 30 conditions resolve to Yes, leaving no path to No). Polymarket is a standard Up/Down directional market. Verify Kalshi's actual market terms directly on their platform before trading. If Kalshi truly has no No condition, it is unresolvable as written.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Absolute price-band framework: 30 conditions, each tied to a 100-point NDX band (e.g., 26200–26299.99, 25700–25799.99, etc.), all resolving to Yes. No explicit No condition provided. Covers range from <23600 to >26399.99. Logic: If end-of-day NDX on March 13, 2026 falls within any listed band, market resolves Yes.
  • Polymarket: Directional comparison framework: Resolves Up if March 13 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 13 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Logic: Outcome depends on price movement, not absolute level.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.