TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 12?
Volume:
$9,568
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 12, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary contracts each tied to specific absolute price thresholds. Both markets resolve based on official end-of-day NDX closing prices.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible settlement frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (March 12 vs prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds on March 12 only. The prior trading day close is not specified in Kalshi's criteria, making direct reconciliation impossible.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move together. Polymarket Up can occur at any NDX level above the prior close; Kalshi Yes outcomes are fixed at specific price points. Understand which framework matches your trading thesis before entering positions. Use Polymarket for momentum plays; use Kalshi for precise price targets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Relative directional market comparing March 12, 2026 close to the most recent prior trading day close. Resolves Up, Down, or 50-50 (tie). Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Handles edge cases including shortened sessions, trading halts, and no-trade scenarios with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.
- Kalshi: 60 separate absolute threshold contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 12, 2026 exceeds a specific price level (21899.99 to 27799.99). No reference to prior trading day. No explicit edge case handling provided. Implicitly resolves No if price is at or below threshold.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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