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394,660

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Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 12?
polymarket
kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 12?

Volume:
$9,568

24,500 or above

 - Kalshi

24,500 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 12, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

24,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,543
N/A
N/A
$2,496
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$612
N/A
N/A
$612
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
$320
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
$42
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
$41
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,200 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,600 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,080
N/A
N/A
$1,971
Settled
No
kalshi

24,800 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,168
N/A
N/A
$589
Settled
No
kalshi

25,900 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,020
N/A
N/A
$1,020
Settled
No
kalshi

25,800 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$681
N/A
N/A
$681
Settled
No
kalshi

24,900 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
$219
Settled
No
kalshi

25,100 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$176
N/A
N/A
$171
Settled
No
kalshi

24,700 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
$132
Settled
No
kalshi

25,200 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132
N/A
N/A
$132
Settled
No
kalshi

25,700 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84
N/A
N/A
$84
Settled
No
kalshi

25,300 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83
N/A
N/A
$83
Settled
No
kalshi

25,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
No
kalshi

25,400 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
$42
Settled
No
kalshi

25,600 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$40
Settled
No
kalshi

25,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

26,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 12?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

27,800 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

23,700 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 12, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary contracts each tied to specific absolute price thresholds. Both markets resolve based on official end-of-day NDX closing prices.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible settlement frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (March 12 vs prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds on March 12 only. The prior trading day close is not specified in Kalshi's criteria, making direct reconciliation impossible.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets move together. Polymarket Up can occur at any NDX level above the prior close; Kalshi Yes outcomes are fixed at specific price points. Understand which framework matches your trading thesis before entering positions. Use Polymarket for momentum plays; use Kalshi for precise price targets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Relative directional market comparing March 12, 2026 close to the most recent prior trading day close. Resolves Up, Down, or 50-50 (tie). Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Handles edge cases including shortened sessions, trading halts, and no-trade scenarios with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.
  • Kalshi: 60 separate absolute threshold contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 12, 2026 exceeds a specific price level (21899.99 to 27799.99). No reference to prior trading day. No explicit edge case handling provided. Implicitly resolves No if price is at or below threshold.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.