TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 10?
Volume:
$27,672
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 10, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers multiple binary contracts tied to specific price thresholds. Both platforms reference the same underlying asset and settlement date but use fundamentally different resolution mechanics.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison framework, while Kalshi uses 60 independent absolute price threshold contracts. These are incompatible resolution archetypes that measure different things and cannot be unified.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket is a pure directional bet; Kalshi contracts are level-specific bets. Verify the prior trading day close independently for Polymarket. For Kalshi, identify which threshold aligns with your view and trade that specific contract—do not assume all 60 contracts move together.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Relative comparison framework. Resolves Up if March 10 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 10 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Handles edge cases: shortened sessions use official close; trading halts use last valid on-exchange trade; no trading = 50-50.
- Kalshi: Absolute threshold framework. 60 independent Yes/No contracts, each tied to a specific price level (21599.99 through 27499.99). Each resolves Yes if end-of-day NDX > threshold, No otherwise. No baseline or prior-day reference; purely absolute level-based.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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