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394,660

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30,119

events

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2,626

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5

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VS.

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Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 10?
polymarket
kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 10?

Volume:
$27,672

24,900 or above

 - Kalshi

24,900 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 10, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

24,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,010
N/A
N/A
$1,813
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$241
N/A
N/A
$156
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

25,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,577
N/A
N/A
$3,486
Settled
No
kalshi

25,100 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,665
N/A
N/A
$5,492
Settled
No
kalshi

25,200 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,115
N/A
N/A
$1,319
Settled
No
kalshi

25,400 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
No
kalshi

25,300 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 10?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

25,700 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

23,600 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,800 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,300 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

25,800 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

23,700 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,100 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,000 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,400 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

25,900 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

25,600 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

23,900 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,200 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,400 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 10, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers multiple binary contracts tied to specific price thresholds. Both platforms reference the same underlying asset and settlement date but use fundamentally different resolution mechanics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison framework, while Kalshi uses 60 independent absolute price threshold contracts. These are incompatible resolution archetypes that measure different things and cannot be unified.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket is a pure directional bet; Kalshi contracts are level-specific bets. Verify the prior trading day close independently for Polymarket. For Kalshi, identify which threshold aligns with your view and trade that specific contract—do not assume all 60 contracts move together.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Relative comparison framework. Resolves Up if March 10 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 10 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Handles edge cases: shortened sessions use official close; trading halts use last valid on-exchange trade; no trading = 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Absolute threshold framework. 60 independent Yes/No contracts, each tied to a specific price level (21599.99 through 27499.99). Each resolves Yes if end-of-day NDX > threshold, No otherwise. No baseline or prior-day reference; purely absolute level-based.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.