TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 27?
Volume:
$51,729
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on Friday, February 27, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary contracts, each tied to specific price thresholds on that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative price movement (day-over-day comparison) while Kalshi uses absolute price levels. These are fundamentally different resolution frameworks that cannot be reconciled.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket is a directional bet; Kalshi contracts are level-based bets. Hedging between them requires careful modeling of the prior trading day's close and expected volatility.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison framework. Resolves UP if Feb 27 close exceeds the most recent prior trading day close; DOWN if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trading. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price.
- Kalshi: Absolute price threshold framework. 60 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on Feb 27 exceeds a specific price level. Thresholds span 22299.99 to 28199.99 in 100-point increments. No reference to prior day or relative movement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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