TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 23?
Volume:
$100,707
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index will close higher or lower on February 23, 2026. Kalshi offers 60 individual binary contracts, each tied to a specific price threshold, while Polymarket offers a single relative-movement contract comparing February 23's close to the prior trading day's close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds (NDX > X = Yes), while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day comparison (Feb 23 close vs prior trading day close). The same NDX closing value can produce opposite resolutions on the two platforms.Hero Tip:
These are fundamentally different bets. Kalshi contracts isolate absolute price levels; Polymarket isolates directional movement. A trader bullish on NDX reaching 25000 should use Kalshi. A trader bullish on Feb 23 outperforming Feb 22 should use Polymarket. Do not hedge one against the other expecting perfect correlation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Absolute threshold model. 60 separate Yes/No contracts, each tied to a specific NDX closing price threshold on February 23, 2026. All thresholds range from 21699.99 to 27599.99. Resolution: Yes if end-of-day NDX > threshold; No otherwise. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on February 23, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Relative comparison model. Single contract resolves Up if Feb 23 NDX close > most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Prior trading day is ordinarily Feb 20 (Friday) unless a holiday, then Feb 19 or earlier. Resolution source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Monday, February 23, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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