TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 9?
Volume:
$37,696
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on April 9, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 binary contracts tied to specific price thresholds. Both resolve based on official end-of-day NDX closing prices.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative directional logic (vs prior trading day close), while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. These represent different event archetypes: The Binary Event (Polymarket) versus The Price-at-Event (Kalshi). The markets are structurally incompatible despite both referencing NDX on April 9, 2026.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these markets as interchangeable. Polymarket Up/Down depends entirely on the prior trading day's close (which may be April 8 or earlier if April 8 is a holiday). Kalshi thresholds are fixed absolute levels. To correlate them, you must independently forecast the prior-day NDX close, then determine which Kalshi thresholds align with an Up move from that baseline.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if April 9 close > prior trading day close; Down if April 9 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal. Prior trading day is typically April 8 unless that is a market holiday. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices (Close values).
- Kalshi: 60 separate absolute price threshold contracts. Each resolves Yes if end-of-day NDX on April 9, 2026 exceeds a specific level (e.g., 21199.99, 21299.99, ... 27099.99). No reference to prior-day comparison; each contract is independent.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.