TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 8?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Wednesday, April 8, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Wednesday, April 8, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down relative to prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute price levels (50 binary Yes/No contracts at specific thresholds). These frameworks cannot produce aligned outcomes for the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket's outcome depends entirely on April 7 closing price (unknown until that date), while Kalshi's outcome depends on whether April 8 closes above specific price thresholds. A market holiday on April 7 would force Polymarket to use April 6's close, potentially inverting its resolution. Kalshi is unaffected by prior-day prices. Arbitrage or hedging between these platforms is extremely risky without knowing the April 7 baseline.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on directional movement—Up if April 8 close > April 7 close (or most recent prior trading day if April 7 is a holiday), Down if April 8 close < April 7 close, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Source is WSJ Historical Prices. Logic: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Wednesday, April 8, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves Yes if April 8 end-of-day NDX closes above any of 50 absolute price thresholds (21099.99 through 26999.99 in 100-point increments). Each threshold is a separate binary contract. Logic: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on April 08, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' No reference to prior-day prices or directional movement.
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