TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 23?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Thursday, April 23, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Thursday, April 23, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Wall Street Journal Historical Prices (Close values) at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocksCore resolution logic:
- Compare official NDX closing price on April 23, 2026 to the most recent prior trading day's official closing price
- Resolve to Up if April 23 close is strictly higher than prior trading day close
- Resolve to Down if April 23 close is strictly lower than prior trading day close
- Resolve to 50-50 if the two closing prices are exactly equal (rounded to nearest cent)
- Resolve to 50-50 if NDX does not trade at all during regular session on April 23
- For prior trading day identification: use immediately preceding calendar day unless it was a market holiday, then use next most recent trading day
- If April 23 or prior trading day is a shortened session, use official closing price published by Nasdaq for that shortened session
- If either day has no official closing price due to trading halt, system issue, or other disruption, use last valid on-exchange trade price from regular session as effective closing price
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact Price Match: If April 23 closing price equals prior trading day closing price (to the nearest cent), market resolves 50-50
- No Trading Activity: If NDX does not trade at all during regular session on April 23, market resolves 50-50
- Shortened Trading Session: If April 23 or the prior trading day is a shortened session (e.g., holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq for that shortened session is used for resolution
- Trading Halt or Data Disruption: If either relevant day has no official closing price due to trading halt, system issue, delisting, or other disruption, the last valid on-exchange trade price from the regular session becomes the effective closing price
- Prior Trading Day Identification: For April 23, 2026 (Thursday), the prior trading day is ordinarily Wednesday, April 22, 2026, unless that day was a market holiday, in which case the next most recent trading day is used
Timing:
Resolution occurs after market close on April 23, 2026 (Thursday) when official closing prices are published by the Wall Street JournalFollow the signals, not the noise
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