TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 20?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Monday, April 20, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Monday, April 20, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Wall Street Journal Historical Prices (Close values) at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocksCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves UP if the official NDX closing price on April 20, 2026 is higher than the closing price on the most recent prior trading day.
- Market resolves DOWN if the official NDX closing price on April 20, 2026 is lower than the closing price on the most recent prior trading day.
- Market resolves 50-50 if the two closing prices are exactly equal (rounded to the nearest cent).
- Market resolves 50-50 if NDX does not trade during the regular session on April 20, 2026.
- For the prior trading day reference, use the most recent trading day before April 20, accounting for market holidays (e.g., ordinarily Friday before Monday, or Thursday if Friday is a holiday).
- If either day is a shortened session, the official closing price for that shortened session is used.
- If either day has no official closing price due to trading halt, system issue, or delisting, the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session is used as the effective closing price.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Prior Trading Day Determination: April 20, 2026 is a Monday. The prior trading day is ordinarily Friday, April 17, 2026, unless that date is a market holiday, in which case the next most recent trading day (Thursday, April 16, or earlier) is used.
- Shortened Session: If either April 20 or the prior trading day is a shortened trading session (e.g., day before Thanksgiving), the official closing price published by Nasdaq for that shortened session is still used for resolution.
- No Official Closing Price: If either relevant day experiences a trading halt into market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption preventing an official closing price, the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session for that day is used as the effective closing price.
- Exact Price Match: If the two closing prices are exactly equal after rounding to the nearest cent using standard rounding rules, the market resolves 50-50.
- No Trading Activity: If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session on April 20, 2026, the market resolves 50-50.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon publication of the official closing prices by the Wall Street Journal Historical Prices data, typically within one business day after April 20, 2026.Follow the signals, not the noise
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