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Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 2?
polymarket
kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 2?

Volume:
$227,659

23,900 or above

 - Kalshi

23,900 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 3, 2026

Closed: Apr 2, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

23,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$33,435
N/A
N/A
$9,565
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$31,567
N/A
N/A
$20,021
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,495
N/A
N/A
$10,761
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,925
N/A
N/A
$2,316
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,757
N/A
N/A
$2,267
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,025
N/A
N/A
$464
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$974
N/A
N/A
$437
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$819
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$808
N/A
N/A
$499
Settled
Yes
kalshi

21,200 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$356
N/A
N/A
$356
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
$130
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$117
N/A
N/A
$117
Settled
Yes
kalshi

21,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
$74
Settled
Yes
kalshi

21,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
$57
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
$24
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
Yes
kalshi

23,200 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
Yes
kalshi

20,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

20,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

21,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

21,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

21,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on April 2, 2026 compared to the previous trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 50 granular price-level contracts. Both use official Nasdaq closing prices as the settlement source.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses relative directional settlement (vs prior close), while Kalshi uses absolute price-level settlement. The two markets will resolve differently unless the prior trading day close coincidentally matches one of Kalshi's strike prices.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are interchangeable. Polymarket UP wins if NDX rises from the prior close, regardless of absolute level. Kalshi YES wins only if NDX exceeds a specific price threshold. Cross-platform arbitrage or hedging requires explicit alignment of your directional and price-level assumptions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves UP if April 2, 2026 close > most recent prior trading day close; DOWN if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Handles edge cases (shortened sessions, trading halts, no trade) with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.
  • Kalshi: Absolute price-level market. Resolves YES if end-of-day NDX on April 2, 2026 exceeds any of 50 strike prices (20699.99 to 26599.99). No prior-close comparison; pure absolute settlement. No explicit edge-case handling documented.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.