TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 2?
Volume:
$227,659
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on April 2, 2026 compared to the previous trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 50 granular price-level contracts. Both use official Nasdaq closing prices as the settlement source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative directional settlement (vs prior close), while Kalshi uses absolute price-level settlement. The two markets will resolve differently unless the prior trading day close coincidentally matches one of Kalshi's strike prices.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are interchangeable. Polymarket UP wins if NDX rises from the prior close, regardless of absolute level. Kalshi YES wins only if NDX exceeds a specific price threshold. Cross-platform arbitrage or hedging requires explicit alignment of your directional and price-level assumptions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves UP if April 2, 2026 close > most recent prior trading day close; DOWN if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Handles edge cases (shortened sessions, trading halts, no trade) with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.
- Kalshi: Absolute price-level market. Resolves YES if end-of-day NDX on April 2, 2026 exceeds any of 50 strike prices (20699.99 to 26599.99). No prior-close comparison; pure absolute settlement. No explicit edge-case handling documented.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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