TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 17?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, April 17, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, April 17, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Wall Street Journal Historical Prices (WSJ Close values at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks)Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves UP if the official Nasdaq 100 closing price on Friday, April 17, 2026 is higher than the closing price on the most recent prior trading day.
- Market resolves DOWN if the official Nasdaq 100 closing price on Friday, April 17, 2026 is lower than the closing price on the most recent prior trading day.
- Market resolves 50-50 if the two closing prices are exactly equal (rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding).
- Market resolves 50-50 if NDX does not trade at all during the regular session on April 17, 2026.
- If either day has no official closing price due to trading halt, system issue, or other disruption, the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session is used as the effective closing price.
- Shortened trading sessions due to market holidays use the official closing price published by Nasdaq for that shortened session.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Prior Trading Day Identification: The most recent prior trading day is ordinarily the previous calendar day, but if that day is a market holiday, the reference date rolls back to the next most recent trading day (e.g., a Monday market would reference Friday unless Friday is a holiday, in which case Thursday is used).
- Trading Halt into Close: If a trading halt occurs into the market close on either the reference date or April 17, the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session is used instead of an official closing price.
- Exact Price Equality: If closing prices are exactly equal after rounding to the nearest cent, the market resolves 50-50 rather than UP or DOWN.
- No Trading on April 17: If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session on April 17, 2026 (e.g., due to market closure), the market resolves 50-50.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately after the official Nasdaq 100 closing price for April 17, 2026 is published by the Wall Street Journal, typically at or shortly after 4:00 PM ET on that date.Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.