TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 15?
Volume:
$22,930
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index closes higher or lower on April 15, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 granular price-level thresholds. Both markets resolve based on official end-of-day NDX closing prices.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different settlement frameworks: Polymarket resolves on directional movement relative to the prior trading day, while Kalshi resolves on absolute price thresholds. These produce different economic outcomes and require different trading strategies.Hero Tip:
Understand your market type before trading. Polymarket is a directional momentum bet; Kalshi is an absolute price-level bet. The same NDX close can produce opposite outcomes on the two platforms depending on the prior day's price and which Kalshi threshold is relevant.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison framework. Resolves Up if April 15 close exceeds prior trading day close, Down if lower, 50-50 if equal. Uses WSJ Historical Prices (Close values) as official source. Handles edge cases: shortened trading days use official close; trading halts use last valid on-exchange trade price; no trading = 50-50.
- Kalshi: Absolute price-level framework. Offers 60 binary Yes/No outcomes, each tied to a specific strike price (22299.99 through 28199.99 in 100-point increments). Resolves Yes if end-of-day NDX value exceeds the strike; No otherwise. No explicit edge-case handling provided in source data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.